Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#67
Pace66.8#245
Improvement+1.0#81

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot+2.6#105
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks-5.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#58
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement-0.1#196

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#81
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#258
Layups/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+1.2#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 5.8% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 40.8% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.6% 34.9% 13.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.0 9.7
.500 or above 87.2% 96.7% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 83.9% 72.7%
Conference Champion 5.8% 8.5% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four5.3% 7.0% 4.9%
First Round19.7% 37.2% 15.7%
Second Round9.0% 17.0% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 6.1% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 7
Quad 23 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 211 - 12
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 287   Robert Morris W 69-59 94%     1 - 0 +0.0 -8.0 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 106   @ Miami (FL) W 95-89 51%     2 - 0 +13.3 +18.6 -5.7
  Nov 16, 2021 261   Jacksonville W 63-54 92%     3 - 0 +0.6 -2.4 +4.3
  Nov 20, 2021 252   @ Evansville W 75-59 81%     4 - 0 +14.1 +9.6 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2021 35   Oklahoma L 62-65 45%     4 - 1 +5.7 -0.5 +6.0
  Dec 01, 2021 20   @ Auburn L 68-78 19%    
  Dec 05, 2021 346   Bethune-Cookman W 81-57 99%    
  Dec 11, 2021 278   N.C. A&T W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 15, 2021 151   @ Temple W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 18, 2021 24   Florida St. L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 22, 2021 321   North Alabama W 80-60 96%    
  Dec 30, 2021 16   Michigan L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 02, 2022 94   @ SMU L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 05, 2022 151   Temple W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 135   Tulsa W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 12, 2022 22   Memphis L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 207   @ South Florida W 63-56 72%    
  Jan 18, 2022 177   @ East Carolina W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 162   Tulane W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 58   @ Wichita St. L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 7   Houston L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 03, 2022 207   South Florida W 66-53 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 22   @ Memphis L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 08, 2022 58   Wichita St. W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 17, 2022 7   @ Houston L 59-72 13%    
  Feb 20, 2022 177   East Carolina W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 23, 2022 57   Cincinnati W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 03, 2022 162   @ Tulane W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 06, 2022 135   @ Tulsa W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.5 2.3 4.7 3.9 1.1 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.8 7.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 6.0 7.2 2.8 0.5 18.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.8 5.3 1.9 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 4.0 1.1 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.3 7.2 9.5 12.6 14.0 14.4 12.5 9.9 6.3 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 90.4% 1.3    1.0 0.3
15-3 63.6% 2.0    1.0 0.9 0.1
14-4 23.4% 1.5    0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 95.9% 24.7% 71.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.5%
15-3 3.2% 90.9% 23.8% 67.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 88.1%
14-4 6.3% 76.6% 13.9% 62.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.5 72.8%
13-5 9.9% 52.7% 10.7% 42.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.7 47.0%
12-6 12.5% 31.1% 8.1% 23.0% 10.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 8.6 25.0%
11-7 14.4% 16.6% 5.6% 10.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 12.0 11.6%
10-8 14.0% 7.4% 4.0% 3.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.0 3.5%
9-9 12.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.9%
8-10 9.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.2%
7-11 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
6-12 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.3% 2.3
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 6.0% 16.6% 9.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.3 3.0 3.9 6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 17.6%