Tulsa
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#135
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#134
Pace64.7#287
Improvement+3.2#14

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#126
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#249
Freethrows-2.1#295
Improvement+1.3#57

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot-1.2#215
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#58
Layups/Dunks-0.2#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#320
Freethrows+3.6#11
Improvement+1.9#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.9
.500 or above 42.6% 54.5% 30.1%
.500 or above in Conference 31.3% 36.7% 25.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 9.2% 14.4%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round1.6% 2.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 36 - 49 - 15
Quad 46 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 347   Northwestern St. W 82-75 95%     1 - 0 -10.1 -3.3 -7.1
  Nov 13, 2021 256   Air Force L 58-59 84%     1 - 1 -9.3 -9.5 +0.1
  Nov 15, 2021 128   Oregon St. W 64-58 61%     2 - 1 +5.6 +0.3 +6.1
  Nov 20, 2021 72   Rhode Island W 77-71 33%     3 - 1 +12.9 +14.2 -0.8
  Nov 21, 2021 51   Utah L 58-72 27%     3 - 2 -5.1 -5.2 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2021 283   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-63 87%     4 - 2 +4.3 +1.2 +3.2
  Nov 29, 2021 182   @ Oral Roberts W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 03, 2021 67   @ Boise St. L 60-68 24%    
  Dec 07, 2021 108   Loyola Marymount W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 11, 2021 158   Southern Illinois W 66-61 68%    
  Dec 16, 2021 326   Alcorn St. W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 17, 2021 41   Colorado St. L 69-77 24%    
  Dec 21, 2021 115   North Texas L 61-62 46%    
  Dec 29, 2021 94   SMU L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 04, 2022 22   @ Memphis L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 08, 2022 66   @ Central Florida L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 12, 2022 151   Temple W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 7   Houston L 58-70 15%    
  Jan 20, 2022 57   @ Cincinnati L 61-70 22%    
  Jan 23, 2022 22   Memphis L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 26, 2022 162   @ Tulane L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 207   South Florida W 62-55 75%    
  Feb 01, 2022 58   @ Wichita St. L 61-70 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 151   @ Temple L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 08, 2022 177   East Carolina W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 57   Cincinnati L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 207   @ South Florida W 59-58 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 94   @ SMU L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 177   @ East Carolina W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 02, 2022 58   Wichita St. L 64-67 40%    
  Mar 06, 2022 66   Central Florida L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 5.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.2 4.0 0.8 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 6.3 4.8 1.0 0.0 14.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 6.5 5.1 0.9 0.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.8 4.2 0.8 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.0 13.9 14.5 13.7 11.2 8.6 5.4 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 42.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1
14-4 15.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 57.7% 19.2% 38.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 47.6%
14-4 0.7% 42.3% 4.2% 38.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 39.7%
13-5 1.5% 19.5% 3.2% 16.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 16.8%
12-6 3.5% 9.2% 4.0% 5.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2 5.4%
11-7 5.4% 5.4% 2.8% 2.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 2.7%
10-8 8.6% 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.6%
9-9 11.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.2%
8-10 13.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
7-11 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 13.8
5-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 8.0% 8.0
3-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.0 1.1%