Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#36
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#43
Pace71.0#133
Improvement+3.3#11

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#95
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#25
Layup/Dunks-2.6#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#132
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement+0.7#97

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#10
First Shot+9.1#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#226
Layups/Dunks+1.4#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#29
Freethrows-0.8#228
Improvement+2.7#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.2% 2.5% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 6.3% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 12.8% 21.2% 9.2%
Top 6 Seed 27.6% 40.8% 21.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.9% 83.4% 65.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.2% 81.3% 62.7%
Average Seed 7.2 6.5 7.6
.500 or above 93.7% 97.6% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 87.4% 81.7%
Conference Champion 10.0% 13.2% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Four5.5% 3.6% 6.3%
First Round68.0% 81.4% 62.3%
Second Round40.4% 51.7% 35.5%
Sweet Sixteen16.4% 23.3% 13.4%
Elite Eight7.0% 10.2% 5.6%
Final Four2.7% 4.1% 2.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 217 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 291   Southern W 72-60 97%     1 - 0 +1.7 -8.5 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2021 103   Furman L 72-80 OT 83%     1 - 1 -6.5 -11.4 +5.8
  Nov 15, 2021 105   Navy W 77-60 83%     2 - 1 +18.4 +7.9 +10.6
  Nov 20, 2021 225   Detroit Mercy W 73-67 94%     3 - 1 -0.2 -5.9 +5.9
  Nov 25, 2021 37   Mississippi St. W 72-58 52%     4 - 1 +24.9 +2.3 +22.0
  Nov 27, 2021 53   Maryland W 63-55 61%     5 - 1 +16.7 -4.2 +21.0
  Dec 01, 2021 21   @ Michigan St. L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 04, 2021 65   @ North Carolina St. W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 10, 2021 100   DePaul W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 14, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 81-57 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 123   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 67-74 26%    
  Dec 29, 2021 85   Wake Forest W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 84   @ Georgia Tech W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 05, 2022 213   Pittsburgh W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 24   @ Florida St. L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 12, 2022 65   North Carolina St. W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 213   @ Pittsburgh W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 19, 2022 133   Boston College W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 64   Notre Dame W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 24, 2022 39   @ Virginia L 56-58 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 4   Duke L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 31, 2022 44   North Carolina W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 78   @ Syracuse W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 64   @ Notre Dame W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 16, 2022 106   Miami (FL) W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 45   Clemson W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 21, 2022 44   @ North Carolina L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 85   @ Wake Forest W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 01, 2022 28   @ Virginia Tech L 64-68 35%    
  Mar 05, 2022 39   Virginia W 59-55 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.0 3.5 1.3 0.3 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 2.8 0.3 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.0 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.9 9.5 11.9 13.0 12.8 12.4 9.9 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-2 86.9% 1.7    1.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 67.8% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.9% 2.9    1.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 13.2% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.2 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.1 0.0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 2.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.2% 99.9% 20.6% 79.3% 4.5 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 9.9% 99.7% 15.0% 84.7% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
14-6 12.4% 98.4% 10.6% 87.8% 7.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
13-7 12.8% 93.8% 8.4% 85.4% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.5 2.9 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 93.2%
12-8 13.0% 81.7% 4.8% 76.8% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.3 1.7 0.3 2.4 80.7%
11-9 11.9% 62.0% 3.3% 58.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.5 60.7%
10-10 9.5% 38.3% 2.2% 36.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 36.9%
9-11 6.9% 15.3% 1.2% 14.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.9 14.3%
8-12 4.4% 4.8% 2.0% 2.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 2.8%
7-13 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 2.9 0.3%
6-14 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 70.9% 8.6% 62.4% 7.2 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.2 7.0 7.8 9.1 9.5 8.5 7.6 6.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 29.1 68.2%