Texas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#11
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#37
Pace60.4#343
Improvement+0.5#128

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#18
First Shot+5.6#33
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#59
Layup/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#101
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement-1.5#312

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#13
First Shot+6.0#27
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#61
Layups/Dunks+3.0#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#89
Freethrows-1.4#265
Improvement+1.9#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
#1 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 2.5%
Top 2 Seed 22.1% 22.4% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 45.9% 46.4% 20.7%
Top 6 Seed 66.2% 66.8% 38.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.7% 90.0% 75.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.4% 87.7% 73.3%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 6.5
.500 or above 98.6% 98.7% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 87.5% 74.4%
Conference Champion 22.1% 22.3% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 3.9%
First Round88.7% 89.0% 74.4%
Second Round70.5% 70.8% 54.2%
Sweet Sixteen43.1% 43.3% 30.0%
Elite Eight23.1% 23.3% 12.3%
Final Four12.2% 12.3% 7.4%
Championship Game6.1% 6.1% 5.9%
National Champion3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 352   Houston Baptist W 92-48 99.6%    1 - 0 +25.2 +19.3 +11.7
  Nov 13, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-86 17%     1 - 1 +14.2 +16.3 -3.1
  Nov 17, 2021 179   Northern Colorado W 62-49 96%     2 - 1 +9.3 -7.0 +17.9
  Nov 20, 2021 289   San Jose St. W 79-45 98%     3 - 1 +23.9 -2.4 +25.8
  Nov 24, 2021 215   California Baptist W 68-44 97%     4 - 1 +18.6 -0.2 +22.1
  Nov 29, 2021 216   Sam Houston St. W 76-54 98%    
  Dec 03, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 09, 2021 27   @ Seton Hall L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-46 99.9%   
  Dec 19, 2021 97   Stanford W 71-60 84%    
  Dec 22, 2021 169   Rice W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 349   Incarnate Word W 83-49 99.9%   
  Jan 01, 2022 46   West Virginia W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 04, 2022 101   @ Kansas St. W 66-58 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 34   @ Oklahoma St. W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 11, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 61   @ Iowa St. W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 18, 2022 101   Kansas St. W 69-55 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 34   Oklahoma St. W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 25, 2022 89   @ TCU W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 23   Tennessee W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 61   Iowa St. W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 07, 2022 9   Kansas W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 15, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 23, 2022 89   TCU W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 46   @ West Virginia W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 28, 2022 3   Baylor W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 67-71 38%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.9 6.2 4.5 2.0 0.4 22.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 5.0 7.6 5.6 1.8 0.2 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 6.0 6.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.3 1.6 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.4 6.0 8.0 11.4 13.9 14.0 13.0 11.9 8.0 4.7 2.0 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 96.2% 4.5    4.0 0.5
15-3 77.8% 6.2    4.5 1.7 0.1
14-4 49.0% 5.9    2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 18.6% 2.4    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 14.4 6.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.7% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.6 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.0% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.9 2.9 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.9% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 2.7 1.9 3.9 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.0% 99.9% 22.3% 77.6% 3.6 0.6 2.1 3.9 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-6 14.0% 99.8% 16.6% 83.2% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.5 3.4 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 13.9% 99.4% 12.5% 86.9% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 3.5 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-8 11.4% 95.2% 9.4% 85.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 94.7%
9-9 8.0% 83.8% 6.5% 77.3% 8.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 82.7%
8-10 6.0% 57.2% 7.2% 50.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 2.6 53.9%
7-11 3.4% 25.1% 3.6% 21.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 22.4%
6-12 1.8% 8.7% 1.6% 7.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 7.2%
5-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 10.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 89.7% 18.7% 71.1% 4.8 10.0 12.1 12.6 11.1 10.9 9.5 7.7 5.6 3.6 2.8 2.4 1.3 0.1 10.3 87.4%