Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#28
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#78
Pace64.9#283
Improvement-1.5#297

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#35
First Shot+7.5#14
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#271
Layup/Dunks+4.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#64
Freethrows-2.2#300
Improvement-1.5#316

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#28
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#20
Layups/Dunks+2.9#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.9% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 5.8% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.2% 20.3% 9.1%
Top 6 Seed 30.7% 39.2% 20.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.5% 81.0% 62.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.8% 77.9% 58.2%
Average Seed 7.0 6.6 7.7
.500 or above 96.3% 98.4% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 93.5% 88.5%
Conference Champion 16.1% 19.0% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.2% 4.1% 6.6%
First Round70.2% 79.2% 59.4%
Second Round44.7% 52.4% 35.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.3% 24.7% 15.0%
Elite Eight8.8% 10.7% 6.4%
Final Four3.8% 4.8% 2.5%
Championship Game1.6% 2.1% 1.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 27 - 311 - 10
Quad 36 - 117 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 353   Maine W 82-47 99%     1 - 0 +16.1 +6.7 +10.5
  Nov 12, 2021 105   @ Navy W 77-57 71%     2 - 0 +27.4 +18.0 +11.4
  Nov 15, 2021 270   Radford W 65-39 97%     3 - 0 +16.9 -8.2 +25.7
  Nov 18, 2021 292   St. Francis (PA) W 85-55 97%     4 - 0 +19.7 +8.4 +12.4
  Nov 21, 2021 238   Merrimack W 72-43 96%     5 - 0 +22.2 +13.5 +13.9
  Nov 24, 2021 22   Memphis L 61-69 47%     5 - 1 +5.8 -2.4 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2021 40   Xavier L 58-59 59%     5 - 2 +9.6 -0.8 +10.3
  Dec 01, 2021 53   @ Maryland W 67-66 55%    
  Dec 04, 2021 85   Wake Forest W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 08, 2021 217   Cornell W 84-65 95%    
  Dec 12, 2021 120   @ Dayton W 69-62 74%    
  Dec 17, 2021 38   St. Bonaventure W 66-64 58%    
  Dec 22, 2021 4   @ Duke L 66-75 22%    
  Dec 29, 2021 44   @ North Carolina L 74-75 51%    
  Jan 01, 2022 213   Pittsburgh W 74-56 95%    
  Jan 04, 2022 65   North Carolina St. W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 12, 2022 39   @ Virginia L 56-57 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 64   Notre Dame W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 19, 2022 65   @ North Carolina St. W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 133   @ Boston College W 69-61 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 106   Miami (FL) W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 29, 2022 24   @ Florida St. L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 02, 2022 84   Georgia Tech W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 213   @ Pittsburgh W 71-59 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 78   Syracuse W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 14, 2022 39   Virginia W 59-54 68%    
  Feb 19, 2022 44   North Carolina W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 23, 2022 84   @ Georgia Tech W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 106   @ Miami (FL) W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 01, 2022 36   Louisville W 68-64 65%    
  Mar 05, 2022 45   @ Clemson W 64-63 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.3 4.8 3.4 1.2 0.2 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.4 7.0 6.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.6 4.0 0.9 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 2.3 0.4 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.7 2.0 0.3 7.0 6th
7th 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.3 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 6.4 9.0 10.8 13.4 14.5 13.4 11.2 7.4 3.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 96.7% 1.2    1.1 0.1
18-2 86.6% 3.4    2.7 0.6 0.0
17-3 65.4% 4.8    3.0 1.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 38.2% 4.3    1.8 1.9 0.6 0.1
15-5 13.2% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 9.3 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 2.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 2.9 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.4% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 4.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.2% 99.0% 19.6% 79.4% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
15-5 13.4% 97.5% 15.6% 82.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.1%
14-6 14.5% 92.3% 14.0% 78.3% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 1.1 91.1%
13-7 13.4% 80.1% 8.2% 71.9% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.7 78.3%
12-8 10.8% 62.6% 5.0% 57.6% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.5 4.0 60.6%
11-9 9.0% 36.7% 3.5% 33.2% 10.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 34.4%
10-10 6.4% 20.3% 2.3% 17.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.1 18.4%
9-11 4.2% 5.9% 1.2% 4.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0 4.8%
8-12 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.9%
7-13 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.5% 11.9% 60.6% 7.0 1.4 2.7 4.9 6.2 7.2 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.2 7.6 5.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 27.5 68.8%