Gonzaga
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+20.3#5
Pace79.0#21
Improvement+0.0#186

Offense
Total Offense+15.5#1
First Shot+13.6#1
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks+13.8#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#167
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement-1.6#324

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#18
First Shot+7.5#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+1.3#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#77
Freethrows+4.2#7
Improvement+1.6#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.2% 14.2% 10.9%
#1 Seed 52.9% 53.0% 30.4%
Top 2 Seed 81.5% 81.6% 58.7%
Top 4 Seed 95.7% 95.8% 84.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.9% 98.9% 97.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.3% 90.4% 76.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Second Round97.3% 97.3% 97.8%
Sweet Sixteen82.5% 82.5% 73.9%
Elite Eight64.1% 64.2% 54.3%
Final Four46.5% 46.6% 32.6%
Championship Game33.2% 33.2% 26.1%
National Champion22.8% 22.9% 8.7%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 3
Quad 25 - 013 - 3
Quad 36 - 019 - 3
Quad 411 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 301   Dixie St. W 97-63 99.5%    1 - 0 +23.2 +5.3 +13.5
  Nov 13, 2021 11   Texas W 86-74 83%     2 - 0 +25.1 +26.6 -0.6
  Nov 15, 2021 326   Alcorn St. W 84-57 99.7%    3 - 0 +13.9 +3.9 +9.4
  Nov 19, 2021 175   Bellarmine W 92-50 98%     4 - 0 +38.5 +17.4 +22.1
  Nov 22, 2021 299   Central Michigan W 107-54 99%     5 - 0 +45.3 +17.3 +22.5
  Nov 23, 2021 5   UCLA W 83-63 70%     6 - 0 +37.7 +16.7 +20.7
  Nov 26, 2021 4   Duke L 81-84 68%     6 - 1 +15.5 +7.2 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2021 180   Tarleton St. W 85-58 99.5%   
  Dec 03, 2021 18   Alabama W 91-82 79%    
  Dec 09, 2021 238   Merrimack W 85-55 99.7%   
  Dec 12, 2021 131   Washington W 93-69 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 17   Texas Tech W 82-73 79%    
  Dec 20, 2021 316   Northern Arizona W 97-62 100.0%   
  Dec 28, 2021 321   North Alabama W 97-62 99.9%   
  Dec 30, 2021 142   @ San Diego W 88-70 95%    
  Jan 01, 2022 108   @ Loyola Marymount W 86-70 93%    
  Jan 06, 2022 49   San Francisco W 87-70 95%    
  Jan 08, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 95-65 99.7%   
  Jan 13, 2022 26   BYU W 86-73 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 77   @ Santa Clara W 91-78 88%    
  Jan 20, 2022 188   @ Pacific W 86-65 97%    
  Jan 27, 2022 108   Loyola Marymount W 89-67 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 254   Portland W 96-65 99.8%   
  Feb 03, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 92-68 98%    
  Feb 05, 2022 26   @ BYU W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 10, 2022 188   Pacific W 89-62 99%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   St. Mary's W 80-64 92%    
  Feb 19, 2022 77   Santa Clara W 94-75 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 49   @ San Francisco W 84-73 84%    
  Feb 26, 2022 43   @ St. Mary's W 77-67 81%    
Projected Record 27 - 3 15 - 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 5.9 19.0 31.9 32.5 90.3 1st
2nd 0.5 1.9 3.6 1.9 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 3.3 9.6 21.0 31.9 32.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 32.5    32.5
15-1 100.0% 31.9    30.6 1.3
14-2 90.9% 19.0    14.8 4.2 0.1
13-3 61.5% 5.9    3.1 2.5 0.3 0.0
12-4 27.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
11-5 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 90.3% 90.3 81.1 8.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 32.5% 100.0% 85.0% 15.0% 1.3 24.8 7.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-1 31.9% 100.0% 77.8% 22.2% 1.5 19.8 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-2 21.0% 100.0% 71.3% 28.7% 2.0 7.4 8.4 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-3 9.6% 100.0% 62.2% 37.8% 3.0 1.0 2.6 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-4 3.3% 99.7% 52.1% 47.5% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-5 1.4% 99.3% 46.0% 53.3% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
10-6 0.2% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.9% 75.8% 24.1% 1.8 52.9 28.6 9.6 4.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.8% 100.0% 1.2 80.6 19.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9% 100.0% 1.3 75.4 22.5 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 73.0 25.0 2.0