Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#61
Expected Predictive Rating+20.3#6
Pace72.3#94
Improvement+5.4#1

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#108
First Shot+2.8#99
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#212
Layup/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#208
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement+5.1#1

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#47
First Shot+4.9#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#142
Layups/Dunks+5.2#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#50
Freethrows-1.7#277
Improvement+0.3#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.8% 8.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 34.0% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.0% 33.0% 12.5%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 8.0
.500 or above 77.8% 77.9% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 21.5% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 20.8% 31.3%
First Four5.4% 5.4% 0.0%
First Round31.0% 31.0% 12.5%
Second Round14.9% 14.9% 6.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 23 - 38 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 310   Kennesaw St. W 84-73 95%     1 - 0 -0.2 -4.3 +2.6
  Nov 12, 2021 128   Oregon St. W 60-50 78%     2 - 0 +9.6 -14.4 +23.6
  Nov 16, 2021 334   Alabama St. W 68-60 97%     3 - 0 -6.3 -12.6 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2021 332   Grambling St. W 82-47 97%     4 - 0 +21.0 +10.2 +13.6
  Nov 24, 2021 40   Xavier W 82-70 39%     5 - 0 +22.6 +14.7 +7.8
  Nov 26, 2021 22   Memphis W 78-59 28%     6 - 0 +32.8 +11.6 +20.5
  Dec 01, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-55 99.8%   
  Dec 04, 2021 87   @ Creighton L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 09, 2021 19   Iowa L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 12, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 73-58 93%    
  Dec 19, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 86-57 99.6%   
  Jan 01, 2022 3   Baylor L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 05, 2022 17   Texas Tech L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 11, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 15, 2022 11   Texas L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 18, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-74 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 89   TCU W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 26, 2022 34   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 127   Missouri W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 01, 2022 9   Kansas L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 11   @ Texas L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 08, 2022 46   @ West Virginia L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 101   Kansas St. W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 15, 2022 89   @ TCU L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 35   Oklahoma L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 23, 2022 46   West Virginia W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 101   @ Kansas St. L 65-66 50%    
  Mar 02, 2022 34   Oklahoma St. L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 65-79 11%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.0 1.8 0.2 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.4 3.1 0.3 15.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 5.9 7.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 18.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.2 5.9 2.2 0.2 18.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.2 2.6 1.0 0.0 12.9 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.2 7.9 11.1 14.0 15.0 13.4 11.2 8.5 5.8 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 62.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.0% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.9% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.7% 98.6% 4.9% 93.7% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
10-8 5.8% 96.4% 2.9% 93.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.3%
9-9 8.5% 89.6% 4.1% 85.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 89.2%
8-10 11.2% 67.2% 2.1% 65.1% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.7 66.5%
7-11 13.4% 33.3% 1.3% 32.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.1 8.9 32.4%
6-12 15.0% 9.5% 0.2% 9.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 13.6 9.3%
5-13 14.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.9 0.9%
4-14 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 11.1
3-15 7.9% 7.9
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 34.0% 1.5% 32.5% 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.5 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.1 5.0 2.5 0.2 66.0 33.0%