USC
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#16
Pace66.7#247
Improvement+0.3#156

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#31
First Shot+3.1#89
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#29
Layup/Dunks+8.4#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows-2.3#305
Improvement-1.2#297

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#7
First Shot+11.7#2
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#331
Layups/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#59
Freethrows+3.2#20
Improvement+1.5#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.8% 0.3%
#1 Seed 7.2% 8.4% 2.3%
Top 2 Seed 16.2% 18.7% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 39.8% 43.9% 22.8%
Top 6 Seed 60.8% 65.3% 42.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.6% 93.7% 82.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.6% 92.2% 80.0%
Average Seed 5.4 5.1 6.5
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.7% 87.0%
Conference Champion 20.3% 23.2% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.9% 2.3% 5.3%
First Round90.3% 92.7% 80.4%
Second Round66.2% 69.3% 53.2%
Sweet Sixteen36.1% 38.9% 24.3%
Elite Eight17.4% 18.8% 11.9%
Final Four8.3% 9.1% 5.0%
Championship Game3.5% 3.8% 2.1%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 1.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 27 - 212 - 7
Quad 38 - 121 - 8
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 297   Cal St. Northridge W 89-49 98%     1 - 0 +29.3 +12.7 +18.0
  Nov 13, 2021 151   @ Temple W 76-71 84%     2 - 0 +9.1 +3.9 +5.2
  Nov 16, 2021 189   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 78-61 89%     3 - 0 +18.8 +7.1 +12.1
  Nov 22, 2021 301   Dixie St. W 98-71 98%     4 - 0 +16.2 +5.6 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2021 218   Saint Joseph's W 70-55 94%     5 - 0 +12.4 -3.6 +16.4
  Nov 26, 2021 50   San Diego St. W 58-43 71%     6 - 0 +24.1 +4.9 +22.3
  Dec 01, 2021 51   Utah W 72-63 80%    
  Dec 04, 2021 48   @ Washington St. W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 07, 2021 140   Eastern Kentucky W 83-67 92%    
  Dec 12, 2021 288   Long Beach St. W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 15, 2021 70   UC Irvine W 69-58 84%    
  Dec 18, 2021 84   Georgia Tech W 71-62 78%    
  Dec 21, 2021 34   Oklahoma St. W 69-66 62%    
  Dec 30, 2021 96   Arizona St. W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 02, 2022 6   Arizona W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 06, 2022 129   @ California W 67-58 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 97   @ Stanford W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 13, 2022 128   Oregon St. W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 56   Oregon W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 20, 2022 75   @ Colorado W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 51   @ Utah W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 27, 2022 97   Stanford W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 129   California W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 6   @ Arizona L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 5   UCLA W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 17, 2022 131   Washington W 77-62 91%    
  Feb 20, 2022 48   Washington St. W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 24, 2022 128   @ Oregon St. W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 56   @ Oregon W 70-66 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 6.2 5.3 2.2 0.5 20.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.7 8.1 7.1 3.5 0.4 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 7.2 5.9 1.6 0.1 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.9 4.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.8 10.0 12.7 13.8 16.2 12.7 9.7 5.7 2.2 0.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.1
18-2 93.0% 5.3    4.2 1.1 0.0
17-3 63.5% 6.2    3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 31.3% 4.0    1.6 1.9 0.5
15-5 10.4% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 12.7 6.0 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 58.8% 41.2% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.7% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.7% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.6 2.0 2.9 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.7% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.5 0.9 2.2 3.5 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 99.9% 20.4% 79.5% 4.6 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.6 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 13.8% 99.4% 16.1% 83.4% 5.9 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.0 3.3 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 12.7% 96.4% 13.0% 83.3% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 95.8%
12-8 10.0% 91.1% 8.5% 82.6% 8.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.9 90.3%
11-9 6.8% 82.7% 8.0% 74.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.2 81.2%
10-10 4.4% 61.5% 4.1% 57.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.7 59.9%
9-11 2.6% 35.7% 2.7% 32.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 33.9%
8-12 1.5% 11.9% 0.7% 11.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3 11.3%
7-13 0.8% 2.7% 2.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.6% 18.5% 73.1% 5.4 7.2 9.0 11.2 12.4 10.7 10.3 8.6 6.8 5.8 4.6 3.9 1.1 0.0 8.4 89.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.5 4.5