Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
23 San Diego St. 67.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 13 - 5 +13.8      +3.8 82 +10.1 3 64.7 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Wyoming 35.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +9.1      +5.5 44 +3.6 84 65.6 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Utah St. 30.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +8.1      +3.7 84 +4.4 69 67.3 205 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 Boise St. 29.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +8.0      +2.9 101 +5.1 53 63.0 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 Colorado St. 25.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +7.7      +4.8 62 +2.9 99 64.8 268 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Fresno St. 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 9 +5.5      +1.2 152 +4.3 74 57.7 360 0.0 1 0.0 1
105 UNLV 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +4.7      +1.7 137 +3.0 94 66.3 232 0.0 1 0.0 1
110 New Mexico 12.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +4.0      +4.5 65 -0.5 191 77.1 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Nevada 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +3.1      +3.0 99 +0.2 168 75.0 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 San Jose St. 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 13 -1.6      -0.3 186 -1.4 220 64.6 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Air Force 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 4 - 14 -3.0      -3.3 276 +0.3 164 60.6 346 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.5 43.6 20.4 12.3 8.0 5.6 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2
Wyoming 4.2 16.5 15.8 14.3 12.4 10.3 9.0 7.7 5.9 4.2 2.6 1.2
Utah St. 4.5 13.9 14.4 13.8 12.3 11.1 9.8 8.2 6.8 4.9 3.2 1.5
Boise St. 4.7 13.0 13.3 13.3 12.4 11.0 9.8 8.6 7.3 5.7 3.9 1.7
Colorado St. 4.7 12.7 13.8 13.5 12.5 11.3 9.9 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.6 1.8
Fresno St. 5.5 7.7 10.4 11.3 11.2 11.0 11.2 10.5 9.2 8.0 6.0 3.5
UNLV 6.2 5.0 6.9 8.5 9.6 10.3 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.1 8.9 4.7
New Mexico 6.3 4.4 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.5 11.5 11.8 11.5 10.8 9.0 5.6
Nevada 6.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 8.8 9.7 11.5 11.9 12.3 11.9 10.3 7.0
San Jose St. 8.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.9 9.0 12.1 15.4 20.3 22.6
Air Force 9.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.9 10.1 14.9 22.1 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.5 9.9 11.9 13.4 13.9 12.3 9.4 4.7
Wyoming 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.3 7.4 9.1 10.4 11.0 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.0 4.7 2.4 0.7
Utah St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.5 9.5 10.7 11.0 10.7 9.7 7.9 6.1 3.9 1.9 0.5
Boise St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.4 7.2 5.4 3.5 1.8 0.5
Colorado St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 8.4 10.1 10.6 11.1 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.5
Fresno St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.4 8.9 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.7 7.1 5.3 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.3
UNLV 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.3 7.8 9.5 10.4 11.0 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.8 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
New Mexico 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.1 8.1 9.5 10.6 10.9 10.5 9.6 8.3 6.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
Nevada 8 - 10 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.2 6.9 9.0 10.3 11.0 10.9 9.9 9.1 7.6 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
San Jose St. 5 - 13 2.8 6.2 9.8 12.0 12.3 12.2 11.4 9.3 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 14 5.0 10.0 13.0 14.1 13.4 11.7 9.8 7.4 5.5 3.8 2.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 43.6% 33.2 8.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 16.5% 10.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 13.9% 8.9 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 13.0% 8.2 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 12.7% 7.9 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 7.7% 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 5.0% 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 4.4% 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nevada 3.5% 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 67.9% 28.5% 39.4% 11   5.1 6.0 5.7 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 6.8 2.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 32.1 55.1%
Wyoming 35.3% 13.2% 22.0% 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 4.1 5.2 6.1 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 64.7 25.4%
Utah St. 30.1% 11.3% 18.8% 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.7 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 69.9 21.2%
Boise St. 29.4% 11.3% 18.2% 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.2 5.6 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 70.6 20.5%
Colorado St. 25.4% 10.5% 14.9% 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.8 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 74.6 16.6%
Fresno St. 14.9% 6.8% 8.1% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 85.1 8.7%
UNLV 14.1% 6.1% 8.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 85.9 8.5%
New Mexico 12.3% 5.3% 7.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 87.7 7.4%
Nevada 8.9% 4.4% 4.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 91.1 4.7%
San Jose St. 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 97.9 0.6%
Air Force 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 98.6 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 67.9% 4.9% 65.5% 44.3% 23.0% 11.4% 5.4% 2.6% 1.2%
Wyoming 35.3% 4.9% 32.9% 17.7% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Utah St. 30.1% 5.0% 27.5% 14.0% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 29.4% 4.6% 27.2% 13.8% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado St. 25.4% 3.5% 23.7% 11.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Fresno St. 14.9% 2.7% 13.7% 5.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 14.1% 2.7% 12.8% 5.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 12.3% 2.7% 10.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 8.9% 2.0% 8.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.4 16.7 39.8 30.8 10.7 1.8 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 2.2 0.2 21.3 42.3 27.1 7.9 1.1 0.1
2nd Round 78.9% 1.2 21.1 45.4 26.3 6.5 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 43.8% 0.5 56.2 37.0 6.4 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 21.0% 0.2 79.0 19.8 1.2 0.0
Final Four 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.2 0.2
Final Game 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Champion 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7