Preseason Rankings
Wyoming
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#251
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 6.3% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 10.0% 10.9% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.3% 37.5% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.4% 27.4% 7.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 10.5
.500 or above 83.2% 85.9% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 77.9% 54.1%
Conference Champion 16.5% 17.6% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.7% 6.3%
First Four4.9% 5.1% 3.1%
First Round32.9% 35.0% 12.0%
Second Round17.7% 19.1% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.6% 1.2%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.1% 0.3%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 35 - 7
Quad 36 - 211 - 9
Quad 47 - 018 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 80-66 91%    
  Nov 13, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 18, 2022 332   Howard W 86-66 96%    
  Nov 30, 2022 127   Santa Clara W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 03, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 72-64 76%    
  Dec 06, 2022 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 82-57 98%    
  Dec 10, 2022 121   Louisiana Tech W 76-67 76%    
  Dec 17, 2022 28   Dayton L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 21, 2022 44   St. Mary's L 64-66 44%    
  Dec 28, 2022 99   @ Fresno St. W 64-63 52%    
  Dec 31, 2022 110   New Mexico W 81-73 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 10, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 77   Boise St. W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 17, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 69-60 76%    
  Jan 21, 2023 78   Colorado St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 24, 2023 105   @ UNLV W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 31, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 67-60 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 73-65 73%    
  Feb 08, 2023 105   UNLV W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 14, 2023 110   @ New Mexico W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 231   Air Force W 72-57 88%    
  Feb 21, 2023 76   Utah St. W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 24, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 27, 2023 126   Nevada W 80-71 76%    
  Mar 04, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 62-70 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 4.6 4.3 2.4 0.7 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 4.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.8 1.5 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.3 7.4 9.1 10.4 11.0 11.4 10.2 8.6 7.0 4.7 2.4 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.9% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 90.1% 4.3    3.4 0.8 0.0
15-3 65.8% 4.6    2.8 1.5 0.2
14-4 35.7% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 10.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 99.1% 38.4% 60.7% 3.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
16-2 4.7% 97.1% 32.2% 64.9% 5.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.7%
15-3 7.0% 89.0% 26.4% 62.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 85.1%
14-4 8.6% 76.4% 21.7% 54.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 69.9%
13-5 10.2% 55.6% 17.0% 38.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.5 46.5%
12-6 11.4% 36.9% 13.9% 23.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 26.7%
11-7 11.0% 19.7% 10.1% 9.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 10.7%
10-8 10.4% 11.5% 8.2% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 3.6%
9-9 9.1% 6.4% 5.9% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.5%
8-10 7.4% 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 0.1%
7-11 6.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.1
6-12 4.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.8
4-14 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.3% 13.2% 22.0% 8.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 4.1 5.2 6.1 2.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 64.7 25.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 57.4 32.0 6.9 2.2 0.7 0.7