Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
113 Colgate 45.0%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 4 +3.8      +3.1 94 +0.6 155 67.9 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 Boston University 12.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -3.0      -0.5 198 -2.5 252 63.7 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Navy 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3.7      -5.3 318 +1.7 126 63.3 316 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Army 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -5.5      -3.1 270 -2.4 249 72.0 75 0.0 1 0.0 1
271 Lafayette 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 9 -5.7      -2.1 245 -3.6 288 63.7 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Bucknell 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -6.1      -0.1 185 -6.0 333 69.6 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
282 Lehigh 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -7.0      -2.9 261 -4.1 298 70.3 110 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 Loyola Maryland 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -8.0      -6.1 328 -1.9 238 64.1 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 American 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -9.2      -5.6 320 -3.6 284 64.0 296 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Holy Cross 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -9.3      -3.4 280 -5.8 331 67.8 196 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.0 57.0 18.5 9.9 5.8 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2
Boston University 4.2 14.2 17.5 15.3 12.7 10.9 8.9 7.6 5.8 4.4 2.7
Navy 4.4 12.4 16.0 14.8 12.8 11.1 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.4
Army 5.2 7.7 11.6 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.1 10.1 9.4 8.1 6.1
Lafayette 5.3 7.1 11.0 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.3 10.7 9.6 8.4 6.5
Bucknell 5.5 6.4 10.3 11.1 11.7 11.7 11.8 10.7 10.2 8.8 7.3
Lehigh 5.8 5.0 8.4 9.8 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.7 11.5 10.7 9.3
Loyola Maryland 6.3 3.6 6.5 8.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.8 12.6 12.9 12.5
American 6.7 2.4 4.9 6.6 8.3 9.5 10.8 12.0 13.9 15.1 16.5
Holy Cross 6.8 2.4 4.9 6.5 7.9 9.4 10.8 12.0 13.7 15.4 17.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.1 10.5 13.2 14.5 14.9 12.8 7.6
Boston University 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.6 6.8 8.6 9.4 10.4 10.8 10.4 9.5 7.7 5.8 3.7 1.9 0.6
Navy 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 10.4 9.9 9.0 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.5 0.4
Army 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.1 9.2 8.1 6.6 4.6 3.0 1.8 0.7 0.2
Lafayette 9 - 9 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.9 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.0 7.8 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2
Bucknell 9 - 9 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.2 8.7 9.8 10.7 10.3 9.8 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.0 6.5 8.4 9.6 10.6 10.6 10.0 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.6 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.8 2.2 4.0 6.1 8.2 9.6 10.4 10.4 10.2 9.4 8.4 6.8 5.2 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
American 7 - 11 1.3 3.1 5.5 7.9 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.7 8.6 7.1 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 1.3 3.3 5.6 7.9 9.9 10.7 10.6 10.7 9.8 8.6 6.8 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 57.0% 46.3 9.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
Boston University 14.2% 9.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
Navy 12.4% 8.1 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Army 7.7% 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 7.1% 4.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 6.4% 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 5.0% 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 3.6% 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
American 2.4% 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 2.4% 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 45.0% 44.4% 0.6% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 3.8 9.4 11.6 9.0 5.5 2.8 55.0 1.1%
Boston University 12.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 88.0 0.0%
Navy 10.9% 10.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 89.1 0.1%
Army 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.7 93.0 0.0%
Lafayette 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.6 93.5 0.0%
Bucknell 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.2 94.0 0.0%
Lehigh 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.0 95.3 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 96.6 0.0%
American 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 97.5 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 97.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 45.0% 1.6% 44.2% 7.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 12.1% 1.5% 11.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 10.9% 1.8% 10.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 7.0% 1.7% 6.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 6.5% 1.9% 5.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 6.0% 1.4% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.7% 1.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 1.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 2.5% 1.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.5% 0.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 92.6% 0.9 7.4 92.1 0.5
2nd Round 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0