Preseason Rankings
Bucknell
Patriot League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#274
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#126
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#333
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.5% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 37.2% 51.9% 22.1%
.500 or above in Conference 50.7% 61.8% 39.4%
Conference Champion 6.4% 9.5% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 6.5% 15.9%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
First Round5.3% 7.7% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 52 - 9
Quad 411 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 239   Niagara W 70-69 51%    
  Nov 15, 2022 145   @ St. Peter's L 64-75 18%    
  Nov 18, 2022 106   @ Georgia L 72-86 11%    
  Nov 21, 2022 310   Presbyterian W 72-69 60%    
  Nov 26, 2022 296   Marist W 74-69 66%    
  Nov 30, 2022 291   St. Francis (PA) W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 03, 2022 325   @ NJIT W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 06, 2022 182   @ La Salle L 70-79 24%    
  Dec 18, 2022 280   Merrimack W 68-64 61%    
  Dec 21, 2022 88   @ Richmond L 66-82 10%    
  Dec 23, 2022 43   @ Rutgers L 61-81 5%    
  Dec 30, 2022 317   @ Holy Cross W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 02, 2023 233   Boston University L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 05, 2023 282   Lehigh W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 08, 2023 271   @ Lafayette L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 11, 2023 297   Loyola Maryland W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 113   @ Colgate L 69-82 15%    
  Jan 18, 2023 266   @ Army L 74-78 39%    
  Jan 21, 2023 317   Holy Cross W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 25, 2023 246   Navy W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 28, 2023 297   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 01, 2023 312   @ American W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 266   Army W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 08, 2023 246   @ Navy L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 11, 2023 113   Colgate L 72-79 29%    
  Feb 13, 2023 312   American W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 233   @ Boston University L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 22, 2023 282   @ Lehigh L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 271   Lafayette W 74-71 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 6.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 10th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.2 8.7 9.8 10.7 10.3 9.8 8.7 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 89.1% 1.3    1.1 0.2
15-3 64.6% 1.7    1.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 37.6% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 58.8% 55.6% 3.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.2%
17-1 0.6% 49.0% 48.5% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9%
16-2 1.4% 42.5% 42.3% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.3%
15-3 2.7% 27.2% 27.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.0
14-4 4.1% 19.4% 19.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.3
13-5 5.8% 15.2% 15.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 4.9
12-6 7.2% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.4
11-7 8.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.1
10-8 9.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
9-9 10.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.0
8-10 10.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 9.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.6
6-12 8.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.7
5-13 7.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
4-14 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-15 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.2 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%