Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
158 Louisiana 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      -7.5 345 +8.0 12 73.2 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Marshall 11.1%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +0.4      +1.8 133 -1.4 219 79.6 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 James Madison 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +0.3      +2.3 117 -2.0 239 71.8 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
168 Texas St. 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +0.1      -1.2 224 +1.3 138 61.8 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
169 Georgia St. 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 0.0      -0.4 192 +0.4 157 68.4 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Appalachian St. 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.4      -1.4 232 +1.0 143 62.7 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Coastal Carolina 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -0.4      -0.1 184 -0.3 181 67.2 207 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 Old Dominion 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -0.5      -1.8 238 +1.3 134 62.5 331 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 South Alabama 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.5      -1.9 240 +0.4 159 67.0 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
230 Arkansas St. 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 -3.0      -2.1 244 -0.9 200 69.9 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Troy 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.1      -3.0 264 -0.1 175 68.1 183 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Georgia Southern 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -4.0      -3.2 275 -0.7 195 65.8 245 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Louisiana Monroe 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.1      -1.5 234 -3.6 285 69.9 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Southern Miss 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 6 - 12 -8.1      -4.0 292 -4.2 300 67.9 193 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Louisiana 5.4 15.8 12.4 10.5 9.5 8.4 7.6 6.9 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.2 3.4 2.5 1.9
Marshall 6.0 12.5 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.7 7.8 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.2
James Madison 6.0 12.8 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.6 7.8 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.8 5.2 4.7 3.8 2.5
Texas St. 5.6 14.4 11.7 10.5 9.4 8.7 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.2 4.7 3.6 2.8 2.1
Georgia St. 6.1 12.0 10.3 9.4 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.2 7.0 6.3 6.2 5.4 4.5 4.0 2.7
Appalachian St. 6.3 10.8 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.1 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.1 5.4 5.3 4.6 3.0
Coastal Carolina 6.6 10.4 8.7 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.9 6.4 6.4 5.8 5.2 3.5
Old Dominion 6.6 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.2 5.7 4.8 3.0
South Alabama 6.6 9.4 8.8 9.1 8.3 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.6 5.9 5.3 4.8 3.6
Arkansas St. 7.5 6.2 6.4 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 5.7
Troy 7.7 5.7 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.0
Georgia Southern 8.7 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.4 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.9 10.7 9.2
Louisiana Monroe 8.9 3.2 3.8 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.7 9.3 10.3 10.4 10.8
Southern Miss 10.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.7 5.8 6.7 7.9 10.0 12.2 15.7 22.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Louisiana 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 5.2 6.5 7.9 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.4 4.2 2.5 0.8
Marshall 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 6.0 7.4 9.2 9.7 10.5 10.6 10.0 8.6 6.9 4.9 3.2 1.6 0.5
James Madison 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.7 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 8.3 7.0 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.6
Texas St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.8 5.6 6.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 10.6 10.4 9.1 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.0 0.6
Georgia St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.5 7.6 9.0 9.9 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.5
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 4.9 6.7 8.0 9.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.3 8.0 6.5 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.4
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.6 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.4
Old Dominion 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 8.6 9.5 10.3 10.5 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.6 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.3
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.9 5.6 7.2 8.6 9.4 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.3
Arkansas St. 9 - 9 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.5 7.3 5.7 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2
Troy 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.6 9.8 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.1 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 0.8 2.4 4.3 6.5 8.1 9.7 10.5 10.8 10.3 9.1 7.8 6.2 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 4.9 6.6 8.5 10.0 10.6 10.5 10.1 8.8 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southern Miss 6 - 12 2.8 6.3 9.6 10.8 12.0 11.9 10.7 9.4 7.7 6.1 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana 15.8% 10.1 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marshall 12.5% 7.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
James Madison 12.8% 8.2 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 14.4% 9.0 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 12.0% 7.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 10.8% 6.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 10.4% 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 9.7% 6.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 9.4% 5.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 6.2% 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Troy 5.7% 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.6% 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana 11.2% 10.5% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 88.8 0.8%
Marshall 11.1% 10.5% 0.6% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.1 88.9 0.6%
James Madison 10.6% 10.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.2 89.4 0.6%
Texas St. 10.0% 9.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 90.0 0.6%
Georgia St. 10.1% 9.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.2 1.1 89.9 0.7%
Appalachian St. 9.4% 8.9% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 90.6 0.6%
Coastal Carolina 9.1% 8.7% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 90.9 0.5%
Old Dominion 8.7% 8.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 91.3 0.5%
South Alabama 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 93.0 0.3%
Arkansas St. 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 95.2 0.1%
Troy 4.8% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 95.2 0.1%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 96.0 0.1%
Louisiana Monroe 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 97.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Louisiana 11.2% 1.2% 10.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 11.1% 1.0% 10.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 10.6% 1.1% 10.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 10.0% 1.2% 9.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 10.1% 1.1% 9.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.4% 1.1% 8.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 9.1% 1.2% 8.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 8.7% 1.1% 8.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 7.0% 1.0% 6.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 4.8% 0.7% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 4.8% 0.8% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 0.9% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.9% 0.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 95.1 4.8 0.1
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 92.1 3.2 0.0
2nd Round 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.3 0.0
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0