Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#230
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#118
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#244
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 12.3% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.1 14.4
.500 or above 62.1% 91.2% 60.1%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 78.0% 48.2%
Conference Champion 6.2% 17.8% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 2.3% 10.0%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round4.4% 11.8% 3.9%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 6.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 412 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 47   @ LSU L 64-81 6%    
  Nov 18, 2022 232   @ UC Davis L 68-71 39%    
  Nov 22, 2022 352   Tennessee Martin W 83-67 91%    
  Nov 25, 2022 285   Prairie View W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 01, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 87-63 98%    
  Dec 06, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas W 80-75 68%    
  Dec 09, 2022 231   @ Air Force L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 14, 2022 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-75 71%    
  Dec 19, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 22, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 29, 2022 186   @ Old Dominion L 64-69 33%    
  Dec 31, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 05, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 67-72 36%    
  Jan 07, 2023 235   @ Troy L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 12, 2023 168   Texas St. L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 19, 2023 158   Louisiana L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 21, 2023 159   Marshall L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 26, 2023 299   @ Southern Miss W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 28, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 64-70 33%    
  Feb 02, 2023 205   South Alabama W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 184   Coastal Carolina W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 09, 2023 168   @ Texas St. L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 251   @ Georgia Southern L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 16, 2023 235   Troy W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 169   Georgia St. L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 158   @ Louisiana L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 24, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.4 0.9 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.4 0.3 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.3 1.4 0.1 7.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 14th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.3 10.2 9.6 8.5 7.3 5.7 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.1% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 89.3% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
15-3 68.3% 1.8    1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.6% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 63.5% 48.7% 14.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.8%
17-1 0.6% 41.3% 34.0% 7.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11.1%
16-2 1.5% 27.4% 26.4% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.4%
15-3 2.6% 20.8% 20.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.1%
14-4 3.9% 12.7% 12.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-5 5.7% 11.4% 11.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.0
12-6 7.3% 9.0% 9.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.6
11-7 8.5% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.0
10-8 9.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.3
9-9 10.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.9
8-10 10.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 9.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.6
6-12 8.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.6
5-13 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 95.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 89.8% 7.9 8.5 8.5 1.7 18.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 10.2 16.9