Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.2#57
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 15.0% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.6 14.0
.500 or above 63.9% 79.1% 47.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.4% 82.1% 62.2%
Conference Champion 15.8% 21.8% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.5% 5.2%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round10.6% 14.4% 6.5%
Second Round1.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Neutral) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 410 - 314 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 167   Harvard W 65-64 52%    
  Nov 17, 2022 121   Louisiana Tech L 66-67 50%    
  Nov 22, 2022 95   @ SMU L 62-71 23%    
  Nov 26, 2022 74   @ Drake L 60-71 18%    
  Dec 03, 2022 286   @ New Orleans W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 10, 2022 172   Samford W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 15, 2022 331   @ McNeese St. W 74-66 76%    
  Dec 21, 2022 9   @ Texas L 51-71 6%    
  Dec 29, 2022 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 31, 2022 186   @ Old Dominion L 60-62 43%    
  Jan 05, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 72-60 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 169   Georgia St. W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 12, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-66 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 19, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 21, 2023 168   @ Texas St. L 60-63 42%    
  Jan 26, 2023 235   Troy W 68-61 70%    
  Jan 28, 2023 251   Georgia Southern W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 02, 2023 168   Texas St. W 63-60 61%    
  Feb 04, 2023 159   Marshall W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 09, 2023 299   @ Southern Miss W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 235   @ Troy W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 259   Louisiana Monroe W 72-63 75%    
  Feb 18, 2023 162   @ James Madison L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 22, 2023 230   Arkansas St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 24, 2023 205   South Alabama W 66-61 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 4.3 3.7 2.5 0.8 15.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.9 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.3 1.1 0.2 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 5.2 6.5 7.9 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.4 4.2 2.5 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-1 99.5% 2.5    2.3 0.2
16-2 87.9% 3.7    2.9 0.8 0.0
15-3 67.0% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.6% 3.1    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 10.1 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 72.1% 51.3% 20.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 42.8%
17-1 2.5% 51.7% 40.1% 11.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 19.4%
16-2 4.2% 36.3% 32.0% 4.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 6.3%
15-3 6.4% 25.5% 24.4% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 4.8 1.4%
14-4 8.2% 19.1% 18.9% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 0.2%
13-5 9.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.2
12-6 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.6
11-7 10.4% 7.9% 7.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.5
10-8 10.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.7
9-9 9.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.0
8-10 7.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.7
7-11 6.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 5.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.2
5-13 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.2% 10.5% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 88.8 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 5.6 30.3 16.9 18.0 29.2
Lose Out 0.0%