IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.1	#21
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.3	#46
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+7.5	#24

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.6	#32

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.1%	2.3%	0.2%
#1 Seed	8.6%	9.4%	1.3%
Top 2 Seed	17.3%	18.8%	3.2%
Top 4 Seed	33.2%	35.7%	9.0%
Top 6 Seed	47.1%	50.3%	17.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	70.5%	73.7%	39.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	67.5%	70.9%	36.9%
Average Seed	5.2	5.1	7.1

.500 or above	85.5%	88.3%	59.3%
.500 or above in Conference	71.9%	74.5%	47.3%
Conference Champion	11.5%	12.4%	3.4%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	2.2%	7.8%

First Four	3.6%	3.5%	4.9%
First Round	68.7%	72.1%	37.6%
Second Round	50.6%	53.6%	22.4%
Sweet Sixteen	27.9%	29.9%	8.8%
Elite Eight	13.9%	15.0%	3.6%
Final Four	6.7%	7.3%	1.4%
Championship Game	3.2%	3.5%	0.6%
National Champion	1.5%	1.6%	0.2%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 5	2 - 5
Quad 1b	3 - 2	5 - 7
Quad 2	5 - 2	10 - 9
Quad 3	6 - 1	16 - 10
Quad 4	4 - 0	20 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	123	George Mason	W	79-65	90%
Nov 11, 2022	142	South Florida	W	77-61	92%
Nov 15, 2022	174	Winthrop	W	85-68	93%
Nov 18, 2022	241	Texas Southern	W	84-64	96%
Nov 22, 2022	117	Bradley	W	79-69	81%
Nov 27, 2022	45	Saint Louis	W	79-73	70%
Dec 02, 2022	113	Colgate	W	82-69	86%
Dec 10, 2022	35	Memphis	W	78-76	57%
Dec 14, 2022	169	Georgia St.	W	83-66	92%
Dec 18, 2022	37	@ USC	L	72-73	47%
Dec 21, 2022	89	@ Washington	W	79-74	65%
Dec 28, 2022	30	Florida	W	75-70	64%
Jan 04, 2023	106	@ Georgia	W	82-76	70%
Jan 07, 2023	11	Arkansas	W	78-77	52%
Jan 10, 2023	58	@ Mississippi	W	73-71	55%
Jan 14, 2023	64	Mississippi St.	W	76-68	75%
Jan 18, 2023	47	@ LSU	W	76-75	51%
Jan 21, 2023	87	@ South Carolina	W	79-75	63%
Jan 25, 2023	39	Texas A&M	W	76-70	67%
Jan 28, 2023	56	@ West Virginia	W	76-74	55%
Feb 01, 2023	106	Georgia	W	85-73	84%
Feb 04, 2023	10	@ Tennessee	L	70-76	32%
Feb 07, 2023	39	@ Texas A&M	L	72-73	48%
Feb 11, 2023	22	Alabama	W	84-81	60%
Feb 14, 2023	70	Missouri	W	78-69	76%
Feb 18, 2023	72	@ Vanderbilt	W	76-73	59%
Feb 22, 2023	58	Mississippi	W	76-68	72%
Feb 25, 2023	3	@ Kentucky	L	73-81	28%
Mar 01, 2023	22	@ Alabama	L	81-84	41%
Mar 04, 2023	10	Tennessee	W	74-73	51%
Projected Record						20 - 10	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	2.0	3.3	3.1	1.8	0.6		11.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	4.2	2.5	0.7	0.0			11.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.2	3.7	4.2	1.7	0.3					11.2	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	3.7	4.3	1.4	0.1	0.0					10.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.1	4.1	1.4	0.1							9.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.6	4.2	1.6	0.1	0.0							8.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.0	1.9	0.2	0.0								7.9	7th
8th							0.1	1.0	3.4	2.2	0.3	0.0									6.9	8th
9th						0.1	0.6	2.5	2.4	0.4	0.0										6.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	1.7	2.1	0.5	0.0											4.7	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	0.6	0.0												4.0	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	0.9	1.4	0.7	0.1													3.3	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0													2.4	13th
14th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0															1.5	14th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.4	2.4	3.6	5.0	6.5	8.3	9.8	10.6	10.9	10.5	9.7	8.1	6.0	3.8	1.9	0.6			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	98.1%	1.8		1.6	0.2
16-2	82.6%	3.1		2.2	0.9	0.0
15-3	54.1%	3.3		1.7	1.3	0.3	0.0
14-4	24.6%	2.0		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.1
13-5	6.3%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.5%	11.5		6.8	3.4	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	41.1%	58.9%	1.1		0.5	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	1.9%		100.0%	29.1%	70.9%	1.3		1.4	0.4	0.0	0.0															100.0%
16-2	3.8%		100.0%	22.1%	77.9%	1.5		2.3	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
15-3	6.0%		100.0%	19.5%	80.5%	1.9		2.4	2.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	8.1%		100.0%	15.2%	84.8%	2.8		1.3	2.5	2.2	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0								0.0		100.0%
13-5	9.7%		99.6%	12.3%	87.3%	3.7		0.5	1.7	2.5	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.6%
12-6	10.5%		98.4%	9.7%	88.7%	5.0		0.1	0.6	1.5	2.1	2.2	1.6	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.2		98.2%
11-7	10.9%		94.9%	8.2%	86.7%	6.3		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.8	2.0	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.6		94.4%
10-8	10.6%		84.2%	6.8%	77.5%	7.6			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.7		83.1%
9-9	9.8%		66.6%	5.2%	61.4%	8.6				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3		64.8%
8-10	8.3%		35.6%	3.8%	31.9%	10.0						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.4		33.1%
7-11	6.5%		13.9%	3.6%	10.4%	11.2							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	5.6		10.8%
6-12	5.0%		5.3%	2.6%	2.7%	12.9								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	4.8		2.7%
5-13	3.6%		2.3%	2.1%	0.2%	15.2												0.0	0.0			0.0	0.1	3.5		0.2%
4-14	2.4%		1.9%	1.9%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3
3-15	1.4%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
2-16	0.7%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		70.5%	9.2%	61.3%	5.2		8.6	8.8	8.2	7.7	7.3	6.7	6.0	5.0	4.4	3.6	3.1	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	29.5		67.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.1	91.3	8.7