Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#177
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 3.2% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 23.3% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 10.5% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.4 10.1 12.2
.500 or above 62.0% 86.4% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 81.1% 57.0%
Conference Champion 9.2% 17.9% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 1.6% 6.3%
First Four1.8% 3.4% 1.5%
First Round10.7% 21.5% 8.1%
Second Round3.1% 8.4% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 19.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 49 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 58   @ Mississippi L 65-74 19%    
  Nov 14, 2022 30   @ Florida L 64-76 13%    
  Nov 17, 2022 163   Bryant W 83-77 70%    
  Nov 19, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 76-67 78%    
  Nov 26, 2022 300   @ Albany W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 30, 2022 205   South Alabama W 74-66 74%    
  Dec 04, 2022 226   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 07, 2022 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-73 73%    
  Dec 17, 2022 224   Florida International W 76-67 76%    
  Dec 21, 2022 195   Northern Kentucky W 71-64 72%    
  Dec 29, 2022 79   @ North Texas L 58-65 27%    
  Jan 05, 2023 60   UAB L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 07, 2023 164   Charlotte W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 224   @ Florida International W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 79   North Texas L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 16, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 19, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 21, 2023 148   @ UTEP L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 26, 2023 137   Middle Tennessee W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 107   Western Kentucky W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 02, 2023 60   @ UAB L 71-80 24%    
  Feb 04, 2023 164   @ Charlotte L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 206   Rice W 78-70 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 121   Louisiana Tech W 74-71 58%    
  Feb 16, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 23, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 78-68 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 148   UTEP W 72-67 65%    
  Mar 02, 2023 206   @ Rice W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 04, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-74 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.3 1.2 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.0 5.5 6.5 8.0 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.3 8.5 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.5% 1.7    1.5 0.2
17-3 74.5% 2.4    1.7 0.7 0.1
16-4 47.3% 2.2    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.2% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 96.6% 62.7% 33.9% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
19-1 0.7% 87.1% 41.4% 45.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 77.9%
18-2 1.8% 73.3% 36.5% 36.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 57.9%
17-3 3.2% 53.4% 26.4% 27.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 36.7%
16-4 4.7% 36.8% 23.4% 13.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 17.5%
15-5 6.1% 22.4% 16.6% 5.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.7 7.0%
14-6 7.7% 15.4% 13.9% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 1.7%
13-7 8.5% 11.7% 11.3% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.4%
12-8 9.3% 7.9% 7.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.0%
11-9 9.6% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.0 0.0%
10-10 9.7% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.3
9-11 9.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.7
8-12 8.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
7-13 6.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-14 5.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-15 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.6% 8.5% 3.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 88.4 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 13.4 37.5 40.2 8.9