Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.3#71
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.9% 6.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 21.7% 21.8% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 37.2% 37.3% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 58.1% 58.2% 8.1%
Top 6 Seed 70.8% 71.0% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.7% 84.8% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.5% 81.7% 26.7%
Average Seed 3.8 3.8 7.8
.500 or above 89.7% 89.8% 34.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 82.0% 29.8%
Conference Champion 26.1% 26.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.1% 19.6%
First Four2.6% 2.6% 3.9%
First Round83.7% 83.8% 29.3%
Second Round70.6% 70.8% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.7% 46.8% 7.2%
Elite Eight27.8% 27.8% 3.1%
Final Four15.8% 15.8% 0.0%
Championship Game8.5% 8.6% 0.0%
National Champion4.5% 4.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 34 - 016 - 9
Quad 44 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 307   Nebraska Omaha W 94-64 99.7%   
  Nov 10, 2022 216   North Dakota St. W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 15, 2022 7   Duke W 77-76 51%    
  Nov 18, 2022 177   Southern Utah W 88-67 97%    
  Nov 23, 2022 69   North Carolina St. W 81-71 79%    
  Nov 28, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 85-61 98%    
  Dec 01, 2022 46   Seton Hall W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 10, 2022 70   @ Missouri W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 13   Indiana W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 22, 2022 167   Harvard W 83-62 96%    
  Dec 31, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 03, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 07, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 10, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 76-67 76%    
  Jan 14, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 76-65 81%    
  Jan 17, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 76-69 70%    
  Jan 21, 2023 19   TCU W 75-68 70%    
  Jan 23, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 74-78 39%    
  Jan 28, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 31, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 79-66 84%    
  Feb 04, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 06, 2023 9   Texas W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 14, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 4   Baylor W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 20, 2023 19   @ TCU W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 56   West Virginia W 80-69 81%    
  Feb 28, 2023 17   Texas Tech W 73-67 68%    
  Mar 04, 2023 9   @ Texas L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.1 6.5 6.3 4.0 1.6 26.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.1 5.1 2.2 0.4 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 5.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.3 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.5 6.0 7.8 9.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.7 8.7 6.7 4.0 1.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.0    3.8 0.1
16-2 93.9% 6.3    5.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 74.3% 6.5    4.6 1.8 0.1
14-4 47.3% 5.1    2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.3% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.1% 26.1 18.6 6.1 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 1.1 1.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.0% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.7% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.3 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.7% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.6 4.8 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.7% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 2.0 4.0 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.1% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.7 2.0 3.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.2% 99.8% 15.0% 84.9% 3.6 0.8 2.0 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 10.7% 98.6% 12.5% 86.2% 4.7 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
10-8 9.4% 94.1% 11.0% 83.2% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 93.4%
9-9 7.8% 81.8% 8.5% 73.3% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 80.1%
8-10 6.0% 57.4% 7.8% 49.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 53.8%
7-11 4.5% 24.8% 5.4% 19.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 20.5%
6-12 3.2% 10.3% 4.5% 5.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 6.1%
5-13 2.1% 3.3% 3.0% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.4%
4-14 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 84.7% 17.4% 67.3% 3.8 21.7 15.5 11.8 9.0 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 15.3 81.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2