Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 3.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 6.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.1% 53.3% 32.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 9.2% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.6 10.9 13.1
.500 or above 95.3% 99.6% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 99.1% 94.3%
Conference Champion 43.5% 62.9% 40.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 2.0% 1.0%
First Round34.5% 52.4% 31.5%
Second Round8.1% 18.7% 6.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 6.9% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 35 - 5
Quad 415 - 220 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 22   @ Alabama L 69-81 14%    
  Nov 14, 2022 340   NC Central W 78-57 97%    
  Nov 18, 2022 299   Southern Miss W 76-60 93%    
  Nov 22, 2022 85   Northwestern L 67-69 45%    
  Nov 26, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 85-57 99%    
  Dec 02, 2022 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-50 99%    
  Dec 12, 2022 122   @ Oral Roberts L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 17, 2022 163   Bryant W 79-74 66%    
  Dec 19, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 78-60 92%    
  Dec 29, 2022 250   @ Bellarmine W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 02, 2023 225   Lipscomb W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 05, 2023 209   Jacksonville St. W 72-62 79%    
  Jan 08, 2023 219   @ Eastern Kentucky W 76-71 64%    
  Jan 12, 2023 309   North Alabama W 77-60 92%    
  Jan 14, 2023 334   Central Arkansas W 84-64 94%    
  Jan 19, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 21, 2023 243   @ North Florida W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 26, 2023 292   Stetson W 75-59 90%    
  Jan 28, 2023 203   Florida Gulf Coast W 78-68 78%    
  Feb 02, 2023 254   @ Austin Peay W 68-61 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 225   @ Lipscomb W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 09, 2023 250   Bellarmine W 71-59 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 219   Eastern Kentucky W 79-68 80%    
  Feb 16, 2023 242   @ Kennesaw St. W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 209   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 321   @ Queens W 76-64 83%    
  Feb 24, 2023 321   Queens W 79-61 92%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.2 8.9 12.5 11.0 5.7 43.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.4 6.7 5.0 1.6 0.2 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.5 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.4 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.9 6.9 9.4 11.5 13.4 14.3 14.2 11.2 5.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.7    5.7
17-1 98.6% 11.0    10.2 0.8
16-2 88.4% 12.5    9.6 2.7 0.1
15-3 62.4% 8.9    4.8 3.4 0.7 0.1
14-4 31.6% 4.2    1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 32.0 9.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.7% 81.3% 71.7% 9.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 34.0%
17-1 11.2% 64.1% 59.8% 4.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.0 10.6%
16-2 14.2% 50.2% 49.3% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 1.8%
15-3 14.3% 39.7% 39.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 8.6 0.2%
14-4 13.4% 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 9.2 0.0%
13-5 11.5% 25.5% 25.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 8.6
12-6 9.4% 17.5% 17.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 7.8
11-7 6.9% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 6.1
10-8 4.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.5
9-9 3.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
8-10 2.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2
7-11 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 35.1% 33.9% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 3.5 7.9 8.7 6.7 3.6 1.6 64.9 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 96.6% 4.9 1.1 2.9 16.0 24.0 24.9 14.4 5.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.3