Preseason Rankings
LSU
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#91
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.6% 10.8% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 18.8% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.2% 43.0% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.2% 39.9% 7.6%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 9.2
.500 or above 75.9% 77.0% 27.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 48.5% 15.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 7.7% 26.5%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 2.1%
First Round40.3% 41.1% 8.5%
Second Round25.1% 25.6% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 11.6% 1.5%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.1% 0.4%
Final Four2.2% 2.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 10
Quad 34 - 111 - 11
Quad 47 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 289   UMKC W 81-60 98%    
  Nov 12, 2022 230   Arkansas St. W 81-64 94%    
  Nov 17, 2022 286   New Orleans W 89-68 97%    
  Nov 21, 2022 180   Illinois St. W 79-68 83%    
  Nov 27, 2022 181   Wofford W 76-62 88%    
  Dec 02, 2022 248   Texas Arlington W 77-60 93%    
  Dec 10, 2022 67   Wake Forest W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 13, 2022 340   NC Central W 85-59 98%    
  Dec 17, 2022 174   Winthrop W 81-67 88%    
  Dec 21, 2022 189   East Tennessee St. W 79-65 88%    
  Dec 28, 2022 11   Arkansas L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 03, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 69-80 19%    
  Jan 07, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 10, 2023 30   Florida W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 77-83 31%    
  Jan 18, 2023 21   Auburn L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 10   Tennessee L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 24, 2023 11   @ Arkansas L 71-80 24%    
  Jan 28, 2023 17   Texas Tech L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 01, 2023 70   @ Missouri L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 22   Alabama L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 64   @ Mississippi St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 14, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 87   South Carolina W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 22, 2023 72   Vanderbilt W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 25, 2023 58   @ Mississippi L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 01, 2023 70   Missouri W 74-69 67%    
  Mar 04, 2023 30   @ Florida L 68-73 35%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.4 1.7 0.2 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.3 2.3 0.3 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 6.5 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 14th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.2 6.1 7.8 9.1 10.3 10.8 10.5 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.1% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 83.7% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 54.7% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 25.1% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 99.1% 11.2% 87.8% 4.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
12-6 6.6% 96.6% 8.9% 87.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.3%
11-7 8.2% 88.6% 6.7% 81.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.9 87.8%
10-8 9.5% 73.0% 5.5% 67.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.6 71.4%
9-9 10.5% 50.3% 3.6% 46.7% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2 48.4%
8-10 10.8% 21.4% 3.8% 17.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5 18.2%
7-11 10.3% 6.9% 2.5% 4.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 4.5%
6-12 9.1% 2.8% 2.4% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.9 0.4%
5-13 7.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
4-14 6.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
3-15 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-17 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 42.2% 5.0% 37.2% 6.9 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 57.8 39.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.5 26.5