Preseason Rankings
Memphis
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#35
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.9#48
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.0% 5.0% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 11.5% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 24.4% 6.1%
Top 6 Seed 25.7% 37.7% 12.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.2% 71.0% 39.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.1% 64.1% 31.7%
Average Seed 6.8 6.2 8.0
.500 or above 82.0% 92.3% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 90.1% 74.4%
Conference Champion 18.9% 25.6% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 2.2%
First Four4.7% 4.5% 4.8%
First Round53.9% 68.9% 37.2%
Second Round34.6% 46.7% 20.9%
Sweet Sixteen16.2% 23.3% 8.2%
Elite Eight7.4% 11.2% 3.2%
Final Four3.5% 5.4% 1.3%
Championship Game1.5% 2.5% 0.5%
National Champion0.7% 1.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 38 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 72   @ Vanderbilt W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 15, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 74-76 44%    
  Nov 20, 2022 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 75-68 72%    
  Nov 24, 2022 46   Seton Hall W 73-72 55%    
  Nov 30, 2022 309   North Alabama W 85-61 98%    
  Dec 03, 2022 58   Mississippi W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 06, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 83-63 95%    
  Dec 10, 2022 21   Auburn L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 13, 2022 22   @ Alabama L 78-83 34%    
  Dec 17, 2022 39   Texas A&M W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 21, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 89-58 99%    
  Dec 29, 2022 142   South Florida W 74-61 86%    
  Jan 01, 2023 82   @ Tulane W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 192   East Carolina W 81-65 90%    
  Jan 11, 2023 92   @ Central Florida W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 15, 2023 93   @ Temple W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 22, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 26, 2023 95   SMU W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 29, 2023 136   @ Tulsa W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 82   Tulane W 80-72 73%    
  Feb 08, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 12, 2023 93   Temple W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 16, 2023 92   Central Florida W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 19, 2023 5   @ Houston L 64-73 24%    
  Feb 23, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2023 53   Cincinnati W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 02, 2023 95   @ SMU W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 05, 2023 5   Houston L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.7 5.3 3.6 1.3 18.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.3 6.9 4.0 1.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.8 6.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.2 7.6 9.4 10.7 12.0 11.8 11.0 8.9 6.5 3.6 1.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.2 0.4
16-2 82.1% 5.3    3.9 1.4 0.0
15-3 53.4% 4.7    2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 26.3% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 7.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 12.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 99.8% 50.9% 48.9% 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
17-1 3.6% 99.9% 41.0% 58.9% 2.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 6.5% 99.2% 32.6% 66.6% 3.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
15-3 8.9% 96.9% 25.7% 71.2% 5.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.9%
14-4 11.0% 91.9% 21.4% 70.5% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 89.6%
13-5 11.8% 80.4% 15.9% 64.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 76.7%
12-6 12.0% 62.9% 13.9% 49.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 56.9%
11-7 10.7% 45.6% 11.5% 34.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 38.5%
10-8 9.4% 26.1% 8.3% 17.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9 19.5%
9-9 7.6% 13.0% 6.1% 6.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 7.4%
8-10 6.2% 7.9% 6.0% 1.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7 2.1%
7-11 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 0.3%
6-12 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.8
4-14 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 56.2% 15.6% 40.6% 6.8 3.0 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 43.8 48.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 12.5 0.8