Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.0% 6.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.7% 15.0% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 24.5% 25.0% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.6% 49.4% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.5% 45.3% 9.4%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 8.9
.500 or above 72.2% 73.2% 26.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.4% 59.2% 23.0%
Conference Champion 7.8% 8.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.8% 20.1%
First Four3.7% 3.8% 2.4%
First Round47.0% 47.8% 10.3%
Second Round31.5% 32.1% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.3% 15.6% 1.2%
Elite Eight7.2% 7.4% 0.1%
Final Four3.3% 3.4% 0.1%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 33 - 111 - 12
Quad 46 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 10, 2022 335   Charleston Southern W 85-59 99%    
  Nov 16, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 81-55 99%    
  Nov 21, 2022 23   San Diego St. L 65-67 44%    
  Nov 30, 2022 7   @ Duke L 69-78 24%    
  Dec 03, 2022 291   St. Francis (PA) W 83-60 97%    
  Dec 08, 2022 43   Rutgers W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 17, 2022 2   North Carolina L 71-78 29%    
  Dec 21, 2022 337   Maine W 79-52 98%    
  Dec 29, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 80-52 99%    
  Jan 01, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 05, 2023 24   Purdue W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 08, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 12, 2023 90   Minnesota W 73-64 75%    
  Jan 15, 2023 43   @ Rutgers L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 18, 2023 98   @ Nebraska W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 29   Iowa W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 24, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 68-74 33%    
  Jan 28, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 02, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 05, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 09, 2023 85   Northwestern W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 12, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 16, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 74-78 39%    
  Feb 19, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 69-74 36%    
  Feb 23, 2023 66   Penn St. W 68-61 70%    
  Feb 26, 2023 18   Illinois W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 01, 2023 48   Maryland W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 04, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 7.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.6 5.6 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.1 7.0 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.3% 1.5    1.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 71.9% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.1% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.8% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.1% 99.9% 16.5% 83.4% 3.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 5.7% 99.6% 14.2% 85.4% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 7.0% 98.1% 11.7% 86.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
13-7 8.1% 93.6% 10.0% 83.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 92.9%
12-8 9.2% 81.4% 7.3% 74.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 80.0%
11-9 9.5% 62.5% 6.2% 56.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6 60.0%
10-10 9.5% 37.1% 5.2% 31.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 33.7%
9-11 9.1% 12.9% 3.8% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 9.5%
8-12 8.3% 4.7% 3.3% 1.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.4%
7-13 7.4% 2.8% 2.8% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.1 0.1%
6-14 5.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.5
5-15 4.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.5
4-16 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
3-17 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-18 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 48.6% 7.2% 41.3% 6.5 2.7 3.3 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 51.4 44.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8