Preseason Rankings
Rutgers
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#293
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.9% 11.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 19.5% 19.7% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.0% 43.5% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.3% 39.7% 7.4%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 9.4
.500 or above 74.9% 75.5% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.6% 53.1% 19.0%
Conference Champion 5.9% 5.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 6.5% 22.3%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 2.3%
First Round41.2% 41.7% 7.0%
Second Round26.1% 26.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 12.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight5.3% 5.3% 0.7%
Final Four2.3% 2.3% 0.4%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 315   Columbia W 82-59 99%    
  Nov 10, 2022 283   Sacred Heart W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 12, 2022 238   Umass Lowell W 75-58 93%    
  Nov 18, 2022 93   Temple W 68-63 66%    
  Nov 22, 2022 218   Rider W 75-59 91%    
  Nov 26, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 80-52 99%    
  Nov 30, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 03, 2022 13   Indiana L 66-68 45%    
  Dec 08, 2022 36   @ Ohio St. L 65-69 37%    
  Dec 11, 2022 46   Seton Hall W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 19, 2022 67   Wake Forest W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 23, 2022 274   Bucknell W 81-61 95%    
  Dec 30, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 84-59 98%    
  Jan 02, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 65-71 33%    
  Jan 05, 2023 48   Maryland W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 08, 2023 29   Iowa W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 11, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 15, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 19, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 66-72 33%    
  Jan 24, 2023 66   Penn St. W 64-59 66%    
  Jan 29, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 01, 2023 90   Minnesota W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 25   Michigan St. L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 07, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 63-71 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 64-71 30%    
  Feb 14, 2023 98   Nebraska W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 18, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 23, 2023 15   Michigan L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 26, 2023 66   @ Penn St. L 61-62 48%    
  Mar 02, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 66-65 55%    
  Mar 05, 2023 85   Northwestern W 70-63 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 5.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 4.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.5 6.2 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 91.6% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
17-3 70.5% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 45.1% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 99.9% 19.6% 80.3% 3.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 4.7% 99.7% 13.2% 86.5% 4.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 6.2% 97.5% 10.5% 87.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.2%
13-7 7.5% 93.2% 8.6% 84.5% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 92.5%
12-8 8.4% 79.7% 7.8% 71.9% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.7 78.0%
11-9 9.1% 60.0% 5.7% 54.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 57.6%
10-10 9.5% 37.1% 4.6% 32.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 34.0%
9-11 9.3% 15.9% 3.9% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 12.5%
8-12 9.0% 5.6% 3.1% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 2.6%
7-13 8.3% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1 0.3%
6-14 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
5-15 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
4-16 3.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.8
3-17 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-18 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 43.0% 6.2% 36.8% 6.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.4 4.4 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 57.0 39.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5