Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#142
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#304
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#253
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.1% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 2.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 13.5
.500 or above 47.6% 52.5% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.7% 29.5% 9.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 19.1% 39.1%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round4.1% 4.6% 0.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 10
Quad 34 - 46 - 14
Quad 48 - 214 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-66 86%    
  Nov 11, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 61-77 8%    
  Nov 14, 2022 292   Stetson W 70-58 87%    
  Nov 17, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 67-58 79%    
  Nov 21, 2022 60   UAB L 65-73 26%    
  Nov 25, 2022 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 73-59 88%    
  Nov 29, 2022 124   Massachusetts W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 02, 2022 335   Charleston Southern W 75-59 91%    
  Dec 12, 2022 132   @ Northern Iowa L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 16, 2022 257   Dartmouth W 66-57 78%    
  Dec 19, 2022 141   Hofstra W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 22, 2022 325   NJIT W 71-56 88%    
  Dec 29, 2022 35   @ Memphis L 61-74 14%    
  Jan 04, 2023 93   Temple L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 08, 2023 94   Wichita St. L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 11, 2023 5   @ Houston L 51-71 6%    
  Jan 15, 2023 192   @ East Carolina L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 18, 2023 53   Cincinnati L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 92   Central Florida L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 25, 2023 93   @ Temple L 60-68 28%    
  Jan 29, 2023 95   @ SMU L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 01, 2023 192   East Carolina W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 08, 2023 35   Memphis L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 61-72 19%    
  Feb 15, 2023 136   @ Tulsa L 62-66 39%    
  Feb 18, 2023 82   Tulane L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 22, 2023 92   @ Central Florida L 62-70 28%    
  Feb 25, 2023 95   SMU L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 01, 2023 136   Tulsa W 65-63 57%    
  Mar 05, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 61-68 28%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 15.7 10th
11th 1.3 3.4 4.5 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.9 11th
Total 1.3 3.5 5.9 8.8 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.6 9.7 8.1 6.4 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 77.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 74.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 46.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 23.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 90.8% 19.0% 71.8% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.7%
15-3 0.6% 73.5% 13.6% 59.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 69.3%
14-4 1.1% 55.7% 11.3% 44.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 50.0%
13-5 2.1% 33.3% 10.0% 23.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 26.0%
12-6 3.3% 17.6% 7.2% 10.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 11.2%
11-7 4.7% 9.8% 5.3% 4.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.8%
10-8 6.4% 6.3% 4.9% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 1.4%
9-9 8.1% 3.2% 2.9% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.3%
8-10 9.7% 2.3% 2.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.0%
7-11 10.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
6-12 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
5-13 11.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.3
4-14 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
3-15 8.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.8
2-16 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.9
1-17 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 4.5% 2.2% 2.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 95.5 2.3%