Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#258
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.9#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#212
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 9.8% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.2 14.6
.500 or above 26.6% 70.8% 25.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.3% 74.5% 41.4%
Conference Champion 3.3% 12.6% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 2.2% 10.4%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round2.9% 9.4% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 2.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 30   @ Florida L 61-82 3%    
  Nov 15, 2022 112   @ Rhode Island L 66-78 15%    
  Nov 17, 2022 240   @ Brown L 71-76 34%    
  Nov 23, 2022 224   @ Florida International L 71-76 32%    
  Nov 25, 2022 185   Eastern Washington L 75-80 35%    
  Dec 03, 2022 146   Yale L 72-75 39%    
  Dec 09, 2022 163   @ Bryant L 78-86 25%    
  Dec 12, 2022 283   Sacred Heart W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 15, 2022 252   @ Wagner L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 18, 2022 266   Army W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 22, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 65-83 8%    
  Dec 31, 2022 199   @ Northeastern L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 05, 2023 260   @ Monmouth L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 07, 2023 118   Towson L 68-74 33%    
  Jan 12, 2023 201   Drexel L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 14, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 19, 2023 199   Northeastern L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 21, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 26, 2023 295   @ William & Mary L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 28, 2023 328   @ Hampton W 77-74 58%    
  Feb 02, 2023 302   Elon W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 04, 2023 141   @ Hofstra L 73-83 22%    
  Feb 08, 2023 260   Monmouth W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 13, 2023 153   @ Delaware L 69-78 24%    
  Feb 16, 2023 295   William & Mary W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 141   Hofstra L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 23, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-76 28%    
  Feb 25, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 78-87 24%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.7 1.0 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.3 1.3 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 1.7 0.2 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.4 12th
13th 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.2 13th
Total 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.4 6.9 8.5 10.0 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 87.6% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 58.3% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 30.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 53.1% 41.2% 11.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2%
17-1 0.3% 43.1% 39.7% 3.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6%
16-2 0.8% 28.9% 28.1% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0%
15-3 1.6% 18.5% 18.0% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6%
14-4 2.8% 15.3% 15.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-5 4.3% 10.3% 10.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.9
12-6 5.9% 7.7% 7.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.4
11-7 7.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7.0
10-8 9.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.7
9-9 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
8-10 10.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.6
7-11 10.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 8.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-16 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%