Preseason Rankings
Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#72
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#155
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 9.4% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 17.6% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 41.5% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.7% 38.9% 14.1%
Average Seed 7.4 7.0 8.3
.500 or above 55.4% 73.0% 39.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 41.9% 20.9%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 9.3% 22.5%
First Four3.2% 4.0% 2.6%
First Round26.4% 39.5% 14.8%
Second Round15.2% 24.0% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 9.9% 2.4%
Elite Eight2.4% 4.0% 1.0%
Final Four1.0% 1.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 13
Quad 33 - 110 - 14
Quad 46 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 35   Memphis L 73-74 47%    
  Nov 11, 2022 299   Southern Miss W 80-61 96%    
  Nov 15, 2022 93   @ Temple L 69-70 47%    
  Nov 18, 2022 187   Morehead St. W 73-61 84%    
  Nov 24, 2022 44   St. Mary's L 63-66 41%    
  Nov 30, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 03, 2022 181   Wofford W 74-62 83%    
  Dec 07, 2022 109   Pittsburgh W 71-64 71%    
  Dec 09, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 16, 2022 69   North Carolina St. L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 22, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 78-54 97%    
  Dec 30, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 86-66 95%    
  Jan 03, 2023 87   South Carolina W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 70   @ Missouri L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 10, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 64-76 17%    
  Jan 14, 2023 11   Arkansas L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 17, 2023 22   Alabama L 77-80 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 24, 2023 3   Kentucky L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 28, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 31, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 74-83 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 58   Mississippi W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 08, 2023 10   Tennessee L 67-73 33%    
  Feb 11, 2023 30   @ Florida L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 14, 2023 87   @ South Carolina L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 18, 2023 21   Auburn L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 22, 2023 47   @ LSU L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 25, 2023 30   Florida L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 01, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 67-80 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 64   Mississippi St. W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.0 1.1 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 11.2 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 4.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.3 13th
14th 0.9 2.8 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.2 14th
Total 0.9 3.1 5.4 7.7 9.9 10.6 11.0 10.7 9.9 8.6 6.9 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 61.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.6% 99.8% 10.1% 89.7% 3.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 2.7% 99.1% 9.6% 89.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
12-6 4.0% 96.5% 8.4% 88.1% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.2%
11-7 5.5% 90.1% 6.7% 83.3% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 89.4%
10-8 6.9% 74.8% 4.9% 69.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 73.5%
9-9 8.6% 51.5% 3.9% 47.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.2 49.5%
8-10 9.9% 23.9% 3.1% 20.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 21.5%
7-11 10.7% 8.2% 2.6% 5.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 5.7%
6-12 11.0% 2.7% 2.0% 0.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7 0.8%
5-13 10.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.5 0.0%
4-14 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
3-15 7.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
1-17 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 28.0% 3.1% 24.9% 7.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 72.0 25.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0