IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.1	#75
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.2	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.2	#155

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.9	#26

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.3%	1.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	3.8%	4.2%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	7.0%	7.6%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.9%	30.0%	7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	20.2%	21.9%	4.1%
Average Seed	8.6	8.5	10.7

.500 or above	85.4%	88.2%	57.9%
.500 or above in Conference	70.9%	73.5%	45.0%
Conference Champion	11.3%	12.1%	3.1%
Last Place in Conference	2.1%	1.7%	6.5%

First Four	4.3%	4.5%	1.8%
First Round	25.9%	27.8%	6.8%
Second Round	13.4%	14.5%	2.2%
Sweet Sixteen	5.2%	5.7%	0.5%
Elite Eight	2.1%	2.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.8%	0.9%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 2	10 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	227	Manhattan	W	78-64	91%
Nov 12, 2022	287	Morgan St.	W	83-64	95%
Nov 16, 2022	61	Arizona St.	L	68-69	47%
Nov 20, 2022	35	@ Memphis	L	68-75	28%
Nov 26, 2022	242	Kennesaw St.	W	77-62	89%
Nov 30, 2022	72	Vanderbilt	W	71-68	60%
Dec 03, 2022	93	@ Temple	L	67-68	47%
Dec 07, 2022	160	Jacksonville	W	68-57	82%
Dec 11, 2022	332	Howard	W	87-65	96%
Dec 14, 2022	293	Radford	W	75-56	94%
Dec 17, 2022	294	Northern Illinois	W	78-59	94%
Dec 21, 2022	246	Navy	W	71-56	88%
Dec 31, 2022	182	La Salle	W	75-64	82%
Jan 04, 2023	178	@ Duquesne	W	71-66	66%
Jan 07, 2023	81	Davidson	W	71-67	63%
Jan 10, 2023	54	@ Loyola Chicago	L	63-68	36%
Jan 13, 2023	28	@ Dayton	L	60-68	28%
Jan 17, 2023	124	Massachusetts	W	79-71	73%
Jan 20, 2023	88	@ Richmond	L	68-70	45%
Jan 25, 2023	123	George Mason	W	71-63	73%
Jan 28, 2023	103	St. Bonaventure	W	71-65	69%
Jan 31, 2023	81	@ Davidson	L	68-70	43%
Feb 03, 2023	45	@ Saint Louis	L	68-74	33%
Feb 07, 2023	28	Dayton	L	63-65	45%
Feb 15, 2023	112	@ Rhode Island	W	69-68	54%
Feb 18, 2023	202	Fordham	W	72-60	84%
Feb 21, 2023	149	@ Saint Joseph's	W	72-68	62%
Feb 24, 2023	88	Richmond	W	71-67	63%
Feb 28, 2023	45	Saint Louis	W	72-71	51%
Mar 04, 2023	196	@ George Washington	W	74-68	68%
Projected Record						19 - 11	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	2.1	3.0	3.1	1.8	0.6		11.3	1st
2nd												0.1	0.9	3.2	4.0	2.1	0.4	0.0			10.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	3.5	4.1	1.5	0.2					10.2	3rd
4th											0.5	3.1	4.3	1.5	0.1						9.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	2.5	4.5	1.7	0.1	0.0						9.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.5	4.1	2.1	0.2	0.0							8.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.9	3.7	2.9	0.4	0.0								7.8	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	2.7	3.1	0.7	0.0									6.9	8th
9th						0.0	0.2	1.8	3.2	1.2	0.1										6.4	9th
10th						0.1	1.1	2.7	1.4	0.2											5.4	10th
11th					0.0	0.6	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.0											4.8	11th
12th				0.0	0.4	1.5	1.5	0.4	0.0												3.9	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.2	0.3	0.0													2.8	13th
14th		0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0														2.1	14th
15th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0														1.0	15th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.4	3.6	5.3	7.2	8.5	10.0	10.7	11.0	10.8	9.5	7.7	5.2	3.5	1.8	0.6		Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	99.3%	1.8		1.7	0.1
16-2	88.6%	3.1		2.3	0.8	0.0
15-3	57.6%	3.0		1.6	1.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	27.2%	2.1		0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	6.2%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.3%	11.3		6.8	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	46.5%	53.5%	2.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0										100.0%
17-1	1.8%		99.6%	35.2%	64.4%	3.5		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.3%
16-2	3.5%		96.1%	28.5%	67.7%	5.4		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		94.6%
15-3	5.2%		87.7%	22.4%	65.2%	7.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0				0.6		84.1%
14-4	7.7%		71.5%	18.4%	53.1%	8.9		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.2	0.0				2.2		65.1%
13-5	9.5%		49.4%	13.2%	36.2%	9.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.0				4.8		41.7%
12-6	10.8%		30.8%	10.2%	20.5%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0			7.4		22.9%
11-7	11.0%		16.2%	8.4%	7.8%	11.2								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0		9.2		8.5%
10-8	10.7%		9.6%	6.8%	2.7%	11.8									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7		2.9%
9-9	10.0%		5.3%	4.7%	0.5%	12.6											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	9.5		0.6%
8-10	8.5%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.2		0.0%
7-11	7.2%		3.1%	3.1%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	7.0
6-12	5.3%		1.5%	1.5%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.2
5-13	3.6%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	3.6
4-14	2.4%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
3-15	1.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		27.9%	9.7%	18.2%	8.6		0.5	0.8	1.0	1.4	1.5	1.7	2.1	2.4	3.3	4.3	5.2	2.4	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.3	72.1		20.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.5	60.3	29.6	8.6		1.4