Preseason Rankings
West Virginia
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#125
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.9% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 10.4% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 18.3% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.2% 36.3% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.9% 33.0% 7.1%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.8
.500 or above 48.0% 49.5% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 30.0% 30.9% 8.8%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 23.0% 21.9% 47.3%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 2.1%
First Round33.3% 34.4% 8.1%
Second Round20.7% 21.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.6% 9.9% 1.5%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.3% 0.7%
Final Four1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 37 - 13
Quad 33 - 110 - 14
Quad 44 - 014 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 75-57 96%    
  Nov 11, 2022 109   @ Pittsburgh W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 15, 2022 187   Morehead St. W 74-61 88%    
  Nov 18, 2022 150   Penn W 81-69 84%    
  Nov 24, 2022 24   Purdue L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 03, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 07, 2022 246   Navy W 74-58 91%    
  Dec 10, 2022 60   UAB W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 18, 2022 133   Buffalo W 83-73 80%    
  Dec 22, 2022 258   Stony Brook W 83-65 92%    
  Dec 31, 2022 68   @ Kansas St. L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 02, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 07, 2023 6   Kansas L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 11, 2023 4   Baylor L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 14, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 18, 2023 19   TCU L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 9   Texas L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 25, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 28, 2023 21   Auburn L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 31, 2023 19   @ TCU L 66-74 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 08, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 9   @ Texas L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 13, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 68-80 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 17   Texas Tech L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 20, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 69-80 19%    
  Feb 27, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. L 67-70 40%    
  Mar 04, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.7 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.5 4.2 1.4 0.2 15.9 9th
10th 1.2 3.2 4.4 4.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 16.0 10th
Total 1.2 3.3 5.5 8.3 9.7 10.6 11.2 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.7 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.5% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 79.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.0% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1
13-5 21.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.7% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.7% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.9% 99.2% 10.2% 89.0% 4.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
11-7 5.3% 97.5% 9.0% 88.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.2%
10-8 6.7% 91.1% 7.3% 83.8% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 90.4%
9-9 8.2% 75.8% 6.4% 69.4% 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 74.2%
8-10 9.5% 46.7% 5.1% 41.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 43.8%
7-11 10.8% 19.9% 3.8% 16.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 16.7%
6-12 11.2% 6.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5 3.1%
5-13 10.6% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.3 0.2%
4-14 9.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
3-15 8.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.1
2-16 5.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.4
1-17 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.3
0-18 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
Total 100% 35.2% 4.7% 30.4% 6.7 1.5 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 64.8 31.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0