Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#295
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#89
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#289
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#296
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 15.6% 26.3% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 25.9% 36.4% 17.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 11.5% 25.4%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round1.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 246   Navy L 66-67 45%    
  Nov 13, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 57-80 2%    
  Nov 16, 2022 312   @ American L 68-70 44%    
  Nov 19, 2022 266   Army W 75-74 52%    
  Nov 23, 2022 293   Radford W 70-67 59%    
  Nov 25, 2022 109   @ Pittsburgh L 61-76 10%    
  Nov 29, 2022 69   @ North Carolina St. L 65-84 5%    
  Dec 03, 2022 88   Richmond L 66-78 17%    
  Dec 07, 2022 186   @ Old Dominion L 63-73 20%    
  Dec 10, 2022 190   Norfolk St. L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 18, 2022 236   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-79 27%    
  Dec 31, 2022 201   @ Drexel L 67-77 21%    
  Jan 05, 2023 199   Northeastern L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 07, 2023 141   Hofstra L 74-81 30%    
  Jan 11, 2023 328   Hampton W 78-72 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-77 20%    
  Jan 16, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 76-88 17%    
  Jan 19, 2023 153   @ Delaware L 67-79 17%    
  Jan 21, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 26, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 28, 2023 118   @ Towson L 63-78 13%    
  Feb 02, 2023 328   @ Hampton L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington L 69-74 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 302   @ Elon L 69-72 42%    
  Feb 13, 2023 118   Towson L 66-75 25%    
  Feb 16, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook L 72-78 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 199   @ Northeastern L 63-73 22%    
  Feb 23, 2023 302   Elon W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 260   Monmouth W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.8 1.5 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.7 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 1.2 3.2 4.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.5 13th
Total 1.2 3.5 6.0 8.7 10.8 11.5 11.6 11.3 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 96.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 63.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 61.5% 61.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 25.8% 22.7% 3.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0%
16-2 0.2% 28.1% 27.0% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5%
15-3 0.6% 19.5% 19.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.1% 10.2% 10.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.0% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-6 3.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0
11-7 4.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
10-8 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
9-9 7.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
8-10 9.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
7-11 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
5-13 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
4-14 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
2-16 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%