Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#171
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#189
Pace68.0#206
Improvement-0.2#308

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#173
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks+3.0#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#290
Freethrows+2.2#68
Improvement+0.1#104

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#186
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#107
Layups/Dunks+1.4#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#204
Freethrows-0.8#224
Improvement-0.3#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 32.4% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 80.5% 84.6% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 92.7% 86.7%
Conference Champion 38.0% 40.0% 29.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four4.9% 4.3% 7.8%
First Round28.5% 30.5% 19.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 414 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 129   @ Grand Canyon L 54-60 28%     0 - 1 -0.2 -7.2 +6.1
  Nov 13, 2022 164   @ Long Beach St. W 70-57 37%     1 - 1 +16.2 +3.5 +13.3
  Nov 15, 2022 42   @ Oregon L 51-81 11%     1 - 2 -16.6 -16.3 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2022 297   @ North Dakota W 81-71 66%     2 - 2 +5.6 +8.1 -2.1
  Nov 25, 2022 227   UNC Greensboro L 66-77 63%     2 - 3 -14.4 -6.7 -7.6
  Nov 26, 2022 150   Quinnipiac L 53-70 45%     2 - 4 -15.9 -16.8 +0.7
  Nov 27, 2022 130   Middle Tennessee L 71-72 39%     2 - 5 +1.7 +0.9 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2022 179   @ Southern Utah W 86-83 40%     3 - 5 +5.5 +3.7 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2022 290   St. Thomas W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 10, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 20, 2022 16   @ Arizona L 72-91 4%    
  Dec 29, 2022 332   Idaho W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 31, 2022 258   Eastern Washington W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 05, 2023 253   @ Northern Colorado W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 07, 2023 305   @ Northern Arizona W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 12, 2023 296   Idaho St. W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 14, 2023 260   Weber St. W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 16, 2023 332   @ Idaho W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 21, 2023 229   @ Montana W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 26, 2023 189   @ Portland St. L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 261   @ Sacramento St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 305   Northern Arizona W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 04, 2023 253   Northern Colorado W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 09, 2023 260   @ Weber St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 296   @ Idaho St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 229   Montana W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 23, 2023 261   Sacramento St. W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 25, 2023 189   Portland St. W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 27, 2023 258   @ Eastern Washington W 73-71 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 6.6 10.2 9.1 6.0 2.9 0.5 38.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.5 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 6.0 4.4 1.3 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.4 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.6 9.8 12.4 15.0 15.0 13.5 9.9 6.0 2.9 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
16-2 98.8% 6.0    5.6 0.3
15-3 91.5% 9.1    7.7 1.3 0.0
14-4 75.3% 10.2    6.8 3.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 44.0% 6.6    2.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.1% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.0% 38.0 26.9 8.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 72.8% 71.8% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.4%
17-1 2.9% 64.2% 64.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.0
16-2 6.0% 58.4% 58.4% 14.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.0 2.5
15-3 9.9% 48.8% 48.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.3 5.1
14-4 13.5% 41.4% 41.4% 14.8 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.7 7.9
13-5 15.0% 33.4% 33.4% 15.1 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 10.0
12-6 15.0% 27.1% 27.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 10.9
11-7 12.4% 20.2% 20.2% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.9 9.9
10-8 9.8% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.1 1.5 8.2
9-9 6.6% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.8
8-10 4.2% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.4 3.8
7-11 2.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.2
6-12 1.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.7% 30.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.5 11.5 9.4 69.3 0.0%