Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#45
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#28
Pace67.9#209
Improvement-0.1#284

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+5.3#49
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#240
Layup/Dunks+7.9#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#246
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement+0.1#61

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#48
First Shot+6.3#36
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#231
Layups/Dunks-0.1#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#161
Freethrows+3.5#24
Improvement-0.3#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.7% 5.6% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 15.3% 17.6% 7.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.3% 50.8% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.9% 48.4% 28.7%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 78.3% 83.5% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 30.3% 19.2%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 23.9% 21.7% 31.3%
First Four6.0% 6.4% 4.7%
First Round43.5% 47.7% 28.9%
Second Round23.3% 26.0% 14.2%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 8.8% 4.3%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.9% 1.5%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 29 - 12
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 93-59 97%     1 - 0 +22.3 +1.3 +17.0
  Nov 11, 2022 232   @ California W 63-54 84%     2 - 0 +8.3 -7.1 +15.6
  Nov 17, 2022 282   UMKC W 69-53 95%     3 - 0 +6.9 -1.9 +10.0
  Nov 21, 2022 175   Rhode Island W 77-57 83%     4 - 0 +19.7 +5.7 +13.5
  Nov 22, 2022 69   Nevada W 96-87 OT 58%     5 - 0 +17.0 +21.7 -5.2
  Nov 23, 2022 62   LSU W 61-59 56%     6 - 0 +10.5 -3.7 +14.2
  Nov 30, 2022 54   @ Butler L 64-76 41%     6 - 1 +0.3 +1.4 -1.6
  Dec 03, 2022 94   Wichita St. W 68-60 77%    
  Dec 06, 2022 238   Abilene Christian W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 11, 2022 327   Incarnate Word W 78-54 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 91   Nebraska W 71-64 76%    
  Dec 21, 2022 211   Radford W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 31, 2022 14   West Virginia L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 03, 2023 4   @ Texas L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 07, 2023 20   @ Baylor L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 10, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 69-67 60%    
  Jan 14, 2023 52   @ TCU L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 17, 2023 17   Kansas L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 21, 2023 27   Texas Tech L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 24, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. L 63-67 35%    
  Jan 28, 2023 66   Florida W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 31, 2023 17   @ Kansas L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 04, 2023 4   Texas L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 07, 2023 52   TCU W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 27   @ Texas Tech L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 14, 2023 40   @ Oklahoma L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 18, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 21, 2023 20   Baylor L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 01, 2023 40   Oklahoma W 65-63 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 14   @ West Virginia L 65-74 20%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 3.2 1.2 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 6.1 2.4 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.4 3.2 0.2 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.6 3.7 0.4 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 15.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.5 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.8 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.0 5.8 9.6 12.0 13.9 13.7 13.0 10.2 7.4 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 92.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 74.3% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 39.2% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.5% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 2.9% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
11-7 4.8% 99.8% 8.2% 91.6% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 7.4% 99.5% 6.3% 93.2% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.5%
9-9 10.2% 95.8% 5.7% 90.1% 7.5 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.6%
8-10 13.0% 80.3% 4.9% 75.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 79.3%
7-11 13.7% 43.4% 4.2% 39.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.8 40.9%
6-12 13.9% 13.3% 2.8% 10.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1 10.8%
5-13 12.0% 3.3% 2.9% 0.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6 0.5%
4-14 9.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
3-15 5.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.7
2-16 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-17 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 46.3% 4.3% 42.1% 7.7 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.6 6.0 7.0 6.5 5.2 4.8 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 53.7 43.9%