UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#227
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#260
Pace63.2#318
Improvement-0.2#330

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#307
First Shot-4.7#313
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#181
Layup/Dunks-0.5#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#259
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-0.2#327

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#143
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#158
Layups/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#256
Freethrows+1.5#105
Improvement+0.0#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 2.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 17.8% 21.8% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 48.4% 35.0%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.4% 8.7%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 37   @ Miami (FL) L 65-79 6%     0 - 1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2022 115   Towson L 53-56 34%     0 - 2 -2.3 -11.8 +9.1
  Nov 22, 2022 281   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-72 70%     1 - 2 -5.0 +1.0 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2022 171   Montana St. W 77-66 37%     2 - 2 +10.8 +2.8 +7.9
  Nov 26, 2022 132   Hofstra L 53-65 28%     2 - 3 -9.4 -19.8 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2022 193   Stephen F. Austin L 58-75 42%     2 - 4 -18.3 -15.4 -3.2
  Nov 30, 2022 274   @ N.C. A&T L 56-73 46%     2 - 5 -19.5 -17.5 -2.2
  Dec 03, 2022 344   @ Elon W 67-61 73%    
  Dec 06, 2022 15   @ Arkansas L 54-77 2%    
  Dec 13, 2022 93   Marshall L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 22, 2022 247   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 29, 2022 286   @ Western Carolina L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 31, 2022 162   @ Wofford L 62-69 27%    
  Jan 04, 2023 149   Chattanooga L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 07, 2023 125   Samford L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 11, 2023 338   @ VMI W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 14, 2023 87   @ Furman L 60-73 12%    
  Jan 19, 2023 271   The Citadel W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 21, 2023 197   Mercer W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 25, 2023 338   VMI W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 29, 2023 87   Furman L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 02, 2023 197   @ Mercer L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 271   @ The Citadel L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 07, 2023 239   East Tennessee St. W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 12, 2023 162   Wofford L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 15, 2023 125   @ Samford L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 18, 2023 149   @ Chattanooga L 59-67 26%    
  Feb 22, 2023 286   Western Carolina W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-66 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.3 11.1 13.2 14.2 13.5 11.4 8.8 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
14-4 48.4% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 21.7% 21.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 17.4% 17.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.4% 11.6% 11.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
13-5 3.2% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-6 5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
11-7 8.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.4
10-8 11.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.0
9-9 13.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.2
8-10 14.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.0
7-11 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.0
6-12 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-13 8.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.2
4-14 5.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 97.5 0.0%