Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#128
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#114
Pace59.4#355
Improvement-0.1#163

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#155
First Shot+0.5#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+3.8#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement+0.2#38

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#112
First Shot+1.2#139
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#122
Layups/Dunks-2.5#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows+1.7#89
Improvement-0.3#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 13.5% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 12.8 13.6
.500 or above 82.6% 91.5% 75.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 84.0% 74.2%
Conference Champion 9.2% 11.7% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round10.5% 13.2% 8.3%
Second Round1.7% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 410 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 175   Montana St. W 60-54 72%     1 - 0 +2.8 -5.7 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2022 69   @ Nevada L 46-59 22%     1 - 1 -2.1 -14.7 +10.5
  Nov 18, 2022 242   Grambling St. W 81-48 82%     2 - 1 +25.9 +5.4 +19.6
  Nov 21, 2022 95   Wichita St. L 43-55 41%     2 - 2 -6.8 -16.7 +7.5
  Nov 22, 2022 174   Northern Iowa W 69-67 62%     3 - 2 +1.8 +3.8 -1.7
  Nov 29, 2022 288   Alcorn St. W 80-72 88%     4 - 2 -1.7 +12.5 -13.3
  Dec 03, 2022 146   @ Wyoming L 62-64 44%    
  Dec 07, 2022 132   Loyola Marymount W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 82   North Texas L 53-57 37%    
  Dec 17, 2022 134   Pepperdine W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 20, 2022 300   Idaho St. W 68-54 90%    
  Dec 29, 2022 160   California Baptist W 62-57 69%    
  Jan 05, 2023 63   @ Sam Houston St. L 55-63 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 168   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 12, 2023 291   Texas Arlington W 65-52 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 160   @ California Baptist L 59-60 48%    
  Jan 18, 2023 246   Utah Tech W 65-55 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 182   Utah Valley W 65-59 72%    
  Jan 26, 2023 226   @ Abilene Christian W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 08, 2023 104   New Mexico St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 114   @ Seattle L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 15, 2023 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-63 90%    
  Feb 17, 2023 226   Abilene Christian W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 22, 2023 104   @ New Mexico St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 24, 2023 114   Seattle W 67-65 57%    
  Mar 01, 2023 183   @ Southern Utah W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 03, 2023 246   @ Utah Tech W 62-58 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.4 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.3 2.2 4.7 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 6.0 4.1 1.0 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.4 6.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.1 1.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.5 0.1 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.9 8.8 11.5 13.8 14.2 13.1 10.8 7.7 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 88.7% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 62.9% 3.0    1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.7% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 10.8% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.9 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 74.6% 49.3% 25.4% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-1 0.6% 51.9% 34.9% 17.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 26.1%
16-2 2.0% 35.3% 29.6% 5.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 8.0%
15-3 4.7% 26.2% 25.3% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 3.5 1.3%
14-4 7.7% 20.5% 20.1% 0.4% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 0.5%
13-5 10.8% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0%
12-6 13.1% 12.2% 12.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.5 0.0%
11-7 14.2% 9.2% 9.2% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.9
10-8 13.8% 7.2% 7.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.8
9-9 11.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.9
8-10 8.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
7-11 5.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.7
6-12 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.5
5-13 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.7% 10.4% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.6 89.3 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 92.0% 5.3 16.0 16.0 16.0 24.0 16.0 4.0