Oregon
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#50
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#105
Pace69.0#172
Improvement-0.2#217

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#32
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#8
Layup/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#102
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement+0.0#121

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#94
First Shot+4.9#52
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#301
Layups/Dunks+5.2#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#330
Freethrows+4.0#15
Improvement-0.2#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.3% 4.6% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 35.5% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.4% 30.8% 14.1%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 10.1
.500 or above 69.0% 78.8% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 78.5% 51.9%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.8% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four5.6% 6.1% 4.8%
First Round26.3% 32.8% 16.0%
Second Round12.8% 16.3% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 5.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 35 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 80-45 99%     1 - 0 +15.0 +2.7 +13.3
  Nov 11, 2022 49   UC Irvine L 56-69 61%     1 - 1 -6.3 -9.9 +3.5
  Nov 15, 2022 175   Montana St. W 81-51 88%     2 - 1 +26.8 +7.4 +19.7
  Nov 20, 2022 1   Houston L 56-66 20%     2 - 2 +8.4 +5.5 +1.3
  Nov 24, 2022 2   Connecticut L 59-83 15%     2 - 3 -3.2 -2.5 -1.2
  Nov 25, 2022 37   Michigan St. L 70-74 45%     2 - 4 +6.8 +7.9 -1.5
  Nov 27, 2022 80   Villanova W 74-67 61%     3 - 4 +13.7 +12.3 +2.4
  Dec 01, 2022 51   Washington St. W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 04, 2022 9   @ UCLA L 69-80 15%    
  Dec 10, 2022 69   Nevada W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 14, 2022 152   UC Riverside W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 17, 2022 110   Portland W 83-74 78%    
  Dec 20, 2022 182   Utah Valley W 76-63 89%    
  Dec 31, 2022 217   Oregon St. W 78-62 92%    
  Jan 05, 2023 44   @ Colorado L 74-77 37%    
  Jan 07, 2023 70   @ Utah L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 12, 2023 40   Arizona St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 6   Arizona L 82-88 30%    
  Jan 18, 2023 231   @ California W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 79   @ Stanford L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 26, 2023 44   Colorado W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 70   Utah W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 02, 2023 6   @ Arizona L 79-91 15%    
  Feb 04, 2023 40   @ Arizona St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 09, 2023 73   USC W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 9   UCLA L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 15, 2023 91   @ Washington W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 19, 2023 51   @ Washington St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 217   @ Oregon St. W 75-65 80%    
  Mar 02, 2023 231   California W 73-57 92%    
  Mar 04, 2023 79   Stanford W 72-66 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 4.0 0.8 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.4 5.8 8.5 11.5 13.7 13.9 12.6 11.0 7.9 4.9 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 70.4% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 40.0% 1.0    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 99.2% 15.6% 83.6% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
16-4 2.5% 98.3% 14.3% 83.9% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0%
15-5 4.9% 91.2% 11.9% 79.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 90.0%
14-6 7.9% 80.1% 9.4% 70.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 78.1%
13-7 11.0% 55.1% 7.5% 47.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.9 51.5%
12-8 12.6% 32.8% 6.9% 25.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.5 27.8%
11-9 13.9% 14.1% 5.5% 8.6% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 9.1%
10-10 13.7% 6.3% 5.1% 1.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.9 1.3%
9-11 11.5% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.1 0.0%
8-12 8.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 8.2
7-13 5.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.8
6-14 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.3
5-15 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 28.8% 5.9% 22.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 71.2 24.4%