Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#183
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#277
Pace79.3#15
Improvement-0.4#313

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#112
First Shot+0.5#147
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#94
Layup/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement-0.3#304

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#255
First Shot-5.6#326
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#31
Layups/Dunks-0.2#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#283
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-0.1#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 27.1% 34.3% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 52.4% 37.1%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.7% 7.5%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round3.5% 4.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 47 - 311 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 57   @ New Mexico L 81-89 12%     0 - 1 +4.2 +4.2 +0.8
  Nov 18, 2022 20   @ Kansas L 76-82 5%     0 - 2 +11.8 +3.3 +9.3
  Nov 25, 2022 167   Texas St. L 65-78 48%     0 - 3 -13.0 -8.0 -4.9
  Nov 26, 2022 260   Sacramento St. W 91-87 2OT 66%     1 - 3 -1.0 -1.3 -0.3
  Nov 30, 2022 175   Montana St. L 83-86 60%     1 - 4 -6.2 +0.3 -6.2
  Dec 03, 2022 300   @ Idaho St. W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 10, 2022 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 17, 2022 304   Northern Arizona W 84-74 83%    
  Dec 21, 2022 44   @ Colorado L 74-88 10%    
  Dec 29, 2022 104   @ New Mexico St. L 79-87 23%    
  Dec 31, 2022 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 91-80 84%    
  Jan 05, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 07, 2023 226   @ Abilene Christian L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 12, 2023 63   Sam Houston St. L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 14, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 104   New Mexico St. L 82-84 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 114   @ Seattle L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 26, 2023 182   Utah Valley W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 01, 2023 160   @ California Baptist L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 246   @ Utah Tech W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 09, 2023 135   Tarleton St. L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 11, 2023 182   @ Utah Valley L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 17, 2023 246   Utah Tech W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 23, 2023 291   @ Texas Arlington W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 63   @ Sam Houston St. L 64-76 15%    
  Mar 01, 2023 128   Grand Canyon L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 03, 2023 160   California Baptist W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.7 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.8 1.0 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.5 1.6 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.4 2.4 0.2 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 5.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.7 10.2 12.8 13.6 12.8 11.1 8.9 6.3 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.5% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 71.1% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.2% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 18.4% 18.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 19.7% 17.5% 2.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6%
15-3 0.9% 26.2% 26.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.4% 15.5% 15.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.0
13-5 4.2% 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.7
12-6 6.3% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.7
11-7 8.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.3
10-8 11.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.5
9-9 12.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.4
8-10 13.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.3
7-11 12.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.6
6-12 10.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.6
4-14 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 96.1 0.0%