Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#127
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#129
Pace67.7#213
Improvement+0.0#136

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#205
First Shot-3.4#289
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#55
Layup/Dunks+3.0#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#335
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#68
First Shot+1.0#145
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#28
Layups/Dunks-1.4#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#53
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement+0.0#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.4% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 62.9% 76.9% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 64.1% 51.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 2.3%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round6.1% 7.9% 4.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 37 - 59 - 12
Quad 46 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 209   @ Winthrop L 68-76 58%     0 - 1 -7.3 -13.3 +6.7
  Nov 15, 2022 278   Rice W 81-46 86%     1 - 1 +26.2 +4.9 +23.6
  Nov 19, 2022 112   @ Missouri St. L 51-75 35%     1 - 2 -17.1 -12.3 -7.2
  Nov 25, 2022 131   Hofstra W 64-54 51%     2 - 2 +12.6 -5.2 +18.6
  Nov 26, 2022 168   Stephen F. Austin W 75-63 61%     3 - 2 +11.9 -0.8 +12.1
  Nov 27, 2022 175   Montana St. W 72-71 62%     4 - 2 +0.8 -2.5 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2022 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-71 33%     4 - 3 +0.4 +0.3 -0.4
  Dec 10, 2022 140   @ Belmont L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 15, 2022 149   Chattanooga W 68-63 66%    
  Dec 21, 2022 98   Murray St. W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 29, 2022 124   @ Charlotte L 58-61 38%    
  Dec 31, 2022 129   Western Kentucky W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 05, 2023 307   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 82   North Texas L 57-58 47%    
  Jan 11, 2023 278   @ Rice W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 16, 2023 45   UAB L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 19, 2023 124   Charlotte W 61-58 59%    
  Jan 21, 2023 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 26, 2023 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 28, 2023 241   @ Florida International W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 02, 2023 189   UTEP W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 307   Texas San Antonio W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 09, 2023 129   @ Western Kentucky L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 45   @ UAB L 71-81 18%    
  Feb 16, 2023 68   Florida Atlantic L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 241   Florida International W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 119   Louisiana Tech W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 02, 2023 82   @ North Texas L 54-61 28%    
  Mar 04, 2023 189   @ UTEP W 64-63 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.4 2.6 0.4 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 5.5 2.2 0.3 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.2 3.6 1.3 0.2 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.5 8.3 11.1 12.9 13.9 13.4 11.1 7.9 5.4 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 87.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.2% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 74.5% 14.5% 60.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.2%
17-3 0.5% 57.6% 22.0% 35.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 45.6%
16-4 1.4% 32.9% 17.0% 15.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 19.1%
15-5 2.7% 21.1% 15.6% 5.5% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 6.5%
14-6 5.4% 15.0% 14.0% 0.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.6 1.1%
13-7 7.9% 10.3% 9.9% 0.4% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.1 0.5%
12-8 11.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.3
11-9 13.4% 6.0% 6.0% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.6
10-10 13.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 13.2
9-11 12.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.4
8-12 11.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.8
7-13 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.1
6-14 5.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-15 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.1
4-16 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 5.8% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 93.5 0.7%