Yale
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#60
Pace65.2#269
Improvement+0.5#8

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#166
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#221
Layup/Dunks+5.2#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-4.2#359
Improvement+0.1#86

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#26
First Shot+1.8#120
After Offensive Rebounds+6.1#1
Layups/Dunks-3.7#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#19
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement+0.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.6% 63.2% 50.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 4.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 13.1
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.5% 98.1%
Conference Champion 71.3% 72.0% 57.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round62.2% 62.8% 50.1%
Second Round16.7% 17.1% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.4% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 5
Quad 414 - 120 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 255   Eastern Washington W 74-60 88%     1 - 0 +9.3 -0.9 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 80-51 99%     2 - 0 +10.2 +2.7 +9.0
  Nov 14, 2022 143   @ Hawaii W 62-59 OT 63%     3 - 0 +7.7 -9.6 +17.2
  Nov 22, 2022 196   Vermont W 73-44 88%     4 - 0 +24.4 +6.1 +21.5
  Nov 27, 2022 44   @ Colorado L 62-65 32%     4 - 1 +10.1 -0.9 +10.9
  Nov 30, 2022 323   Howard W 86-40 97%     5 - 1 +32.7 +11.4 +25.0
  Dec 03, 2022 343   @ Stony Brook W 73-55 95%    
  Dec 06, 2022 55   @ Butler L 61-65 35%    
  Dec 10, 2022 17   @ Kentucky L 60-70 17%    
  Dec 12, 2022 236   @ Fairfield W 66-57 80%    
  Dec 22, 2022 329   @ Monmouth W 73-57 93%    
  Dec 31, 2022 348   @ Columbia W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 06, 2023 318   Dartmouth W 75-54 97%    
  Jan 07, 2023 153   Harvard W 68-58 82%    
  Jan 13, 2023 181   @ Cornell W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 16, 2023 275   Brown W 71-54 94%    
  Jan 21, 2023 159   Penn W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 28, 2023 145   Princeton W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 03, 2023 153   @ Harvard W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 318   @ Dartmouth W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 11, 2023 348   Columbia W 79-55 98%    
  Feb 17, 2023 159   @ Penn W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 145   @ Princeton W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 181   Cornell W 77-65 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 275   @ Brown W 68-57 83%    
Projected Record 20 - 5 12 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.7 13.7 22.6 20.6 10.6 71.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 7.5 5.9 1.3 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.8 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.9 13.1 19.7 23.8 20.6 10.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 10.6    10.6
13-1 100.0% 20.6    20.1 0.5
12-2 94.6% 22.6    18.5 4.0 0.0
11-3 69.4% 13.7    6.9 5.9 0.9 0.0
10-4 28.1% 3.7    0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
9-5 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 71.3% 71.3 56.8 12.2 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 10.6% 87.9% 81.5% 6.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 1.3 34.5%
13-1 20.6% 77.0% 74.1% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.8 6.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 4.7 11.4%
12-2 23.8% 66.6% 65.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.7 6.0 1.5 0.1 8.0 2.4%
11-3 19.7% 56.4% 56.0% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.3 2.2 0.2 8.6 0.8%
10-4 13.1% 47.9% 47.9% 13.4 0.0 0.9 2.4 2.5 0.3 6.8
9-5 6.9% 40.8% 40.8% 13.7 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1
8-6 3.3% 27.9% 27.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4
7-7 1.4% 25.3% 25.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
6-8 0.4% 14.8% 14.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-9 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 62.6% 61.0% 1.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.1 8.0 19.7 19.1 8.8 1.4 0.1 37.4 4.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 99.3% 5.4 0.6 0.4 5.1 20.8 28.7 25.4 8.5 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.4