Vermont
America East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#199
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#246
Pace63.9#300
Improvement-0.2#298

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#195
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#241
Layup/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#86
Freethrows-2.6#314
Improvement-0.1#246

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#199
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#71
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#209
Freethrows-0.9#232
Improvement-0.1#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 12.0% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 50.0% 56.0% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 90.0% 84.0%
Conference Champion 14.2% 15.4% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Four3.7% 3.5% 4.4%
First Round9.5% 10.6% 6.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 12
Quad 412 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 277   Brown W 80-65 75%     1 - 0 +6.3 +4.0 +2.0
  Nov 10, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 53-79 7%     1 - 1 -10.6 -3.1 -10.0
  Nov 13, 2022 207   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 85-94 2OT 41%     1 - 2 -8.2 -3.5 -3.2
  Nov 15, 2022 71   @ USC L 57-59 13%     1 - 3 +8.8 -7.5 +16.3
  Nov 18, 2022 84   Iona L 50-71 23%     1 - 4 -14.6 -15.5 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2022 67   @ Yale L 44-73 12%     1 - 5 -17.9 -14.6 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2022 184   Ball St. W 78-73 47%     2 - 5 +4.2 +8.4 -3.9
  Nov 26, 2022 138   UNC Wilmington L 66-68 36%     2 - 6 +0.2 +0.0 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2022 164   Long Beach St. L 58-78 43%     2 - 7 -19.8 -14.9 -4.3
  Dec 04, 2022 340   @ Merrimack W 68-60 77%    
  Dec 06, 2022 319   @ Dartmouth W 70-65 68%    
  Dec 10, 2022 123   @ Colgate L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 20, 2022 101   Toledo L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 28, 2022 37   @ Miami (FL) L 63-78 8%    
  Jan 01, 2023 281   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 05, 2023 109   Bryant L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 08, 2023 330   @ New Hampshire W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 11, 2023 141   @ Umass Lowell L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 19, 2023 262   Maine W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 22, 2023 318   NJIT W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 25, 2023 337   @ Binghamton W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 281   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 04, 2023 326   @ Albany W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 08, 2023 262   @ Maine W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 141   Umass Lowell L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 15, 2023 330   New Hampshire W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 18, 2023 318   @ NJIT W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 22, 2023 337   Binghamton W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 25, 2023 109   @ Bryant L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 28, 2023 326   Albany W 73-61 86%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.9 4.1 1.6 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 7.0 8.8 4.5 0.7 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.4 10.4 8.7 2.9 0.2 28.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 7.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.3 9.9 14.3 16.8 17.1 14.4 9.5 4.8 1.6 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
14-2 86.1% 4.1    3.0 1.1 0.0
13-3 51.2% 4.9    2.3 2.2 0.4
12-4 18.8% 2.7    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 7.9 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 41.5% 39.6% 1.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1%
15-1 1.6% 35.5% 35.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-2 4.8% 27.3% 27.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 3.5
13-3 9.5% 20.8% 20.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 7.5
12-4 14.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 12.1
11-5 17.1% 11.4% 11.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 15.2
10-6 16.8% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 15.4
9-7 14.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 13.4
8-8 9.9% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.5 9.4
7-9 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 6.1
6-10 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-11 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-12 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.0 88.9 0.0%