Kentucky
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#17
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#89
Pace71.7#107
Improvement-0.3#287

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#30
First Shot+3.0#89
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#15
Layup/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-0.3#188
Improvement-0.4#345

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#16
First Shot+8.9#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks+5.8#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#104
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement+0.1#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 4.0% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 10.2% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 25.8% 30.3% 13.6%
Top 6 Seed 47.7% 53.8% 31.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.2% 89.1% 74.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.9% 87.2% 71.5%
Average Seed 6.0 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 97.9% 99.0% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 93.7% 88.7%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.9% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 2.3% 4.0%
First Round84.2% 88.1% 73.3%
Second Round61.8% 66.1% 49.9%
Sweet Sixteen32.2% 35.7% 22.6%
Elite Eight15.7% 17.6% 10.8%
Final Four7.6% 8.6% 5.1%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.2%
National Champion1.6% 1.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Michigan (Neutral) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 34 - 015 - 9
Quad 47 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 323   Howard W 95-63 99%     1 - 0 +18.7 +6.3 +9.9
  Nov 11, 2022 130   Duquesne W 77-52 92%     2 - 0 +24.7 -0.5 +24.8
  Nov 15, 2022 37   Michigan St. L 77-86 2OT 68%     2 - 1 +1.8 -4.2 +7.5
  Nov 17, 2022 347   South Carolina St. W 106-63 99%     3 - 1 +26.8 +14.1 +8.7
  Nov 20, 2022 11   @ Gonzaga L 72-88 32%     3 - 2 +4.4 +0.1 +5.6
  Nov 23, 2022 245   North Florida W 96-56 97%     4 - 2 +32.8 +15.4 +16.3
  Nov 29, 2022 233   Bellarmine W 60-41 97%     5 - 2 +12.3 -6.8 +22.8
  Dec 04, 2022 58   Michigan W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 10, 2022 65   Yale W 70-60 83%    
  Dec 17, 2022 9   UCLA L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 21, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 85-49 99.9%   
  Dec 28, 2022 48   @ Missouri W 82-79 61%    
  Dec 31, 2022 210   Louisville W 78-57 97%    
  Jan 03, 2023 62   LSU W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 07, 2023 13   Alabama W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 10, 2023 232   South Carolina W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 14, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 17, 2023 123   Georgia W 75-60 92%    
  Jan 21, 2023 56   Texas A&M W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 24, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 28, 2023 20   Kansas W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 31, 2023 64   @ Mississippi W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 67   Florida W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 07, 2023 15   Arkansas W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 123   @ Georgia W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 15, 2023 28   @ Mississippi St. L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 5   Tennessee W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 67   @ Florida W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 29   Auburn W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 01, 2023 88   Vanderbilt W 78-65 86%    
  Mar 04, 2023 15   @ Arkansas L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.6 4.8 2.1 0.4 19.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.4 6.7 2.0 0.1 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.0 1.6 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.1 1.5 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.7 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.7 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.2 3.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.9 9.7 13.8 15.7 15.9 13.2 9.5 5.2 2.1 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.4% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 93.0% 4.8    3.9 0.9 0.0
15-3 70.1% 6.6    3.8 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.3% 4.4    1.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.1% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 11.6 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.2% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.4 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.5% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.4 0.6 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.2% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 4.5 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.9% 99.2% 14.0% 85.2% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.0 4.1 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-6 15.7% 96.9% 13.0% 83.9% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.5 4.2 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 96.4%
11-7 13.8% 89.4% 9.2% 80.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.9 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 88.3%
10-8 9.7% 72.4% 8.7% 63.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 69.8%
9-9 6.9% 49.6% 7.5% 42.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 45.5%
8-10 4.0% 21.2% 6.2% 15.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 16.0%
7-11 2.1% 8.3% 4.8% 3.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 3.7%
6-12 1.0% 5.2% 4.5% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8%
5-13 0.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.2% 13.5% 71.7% 6.0 3.2 5.1 7.5 10.1 10.9 11.0 12.1 10.3 6.4 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.8 82.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.8 8.2