West Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
16 Gonzaga 88.1%   6   22 - 6 13 - 2 22 - 7 13 - 3 +15.2      +10.2 9 +5.0 46 73.0 60 +12.5 29 +11.8 2
20 St. Mary's 86.6%   5   23 - 6 15 - 0 24 - 6 16 - 0 +13.5      +5.9 43 +7.6 17 58.8 357 +11.4 42 +23.2 1
69 San Francisco 11.0%   21 - 8 11 - 4 22 - 8 12 - 4 +8.0      +3.4 94 +4.6 51 68.2 189 +7.7 81 +8.6 3
113 Santa Clara 3.8%   17 - 12 9 - 6 17 - 13 9 - 7 +3.9      +2.3 116 +1.6 125 70.8 112 +4.8 107 +4.1 4
157 Loyola Marymount 1.4%   11 - 17 5 - 10 12 - 17 6 - 10 +0.4      +2.0 119 -1.6 221 64.2 297 -3.3 231 -4.4 6
219 Pepperdine 0.4%   10 - 19 5 - 11 10 - 19 5 - 11 -3.1      +1.0 154 -4.1 294 68.6 179 -4.5 251 -4.9 7
257 San Diego 0.2%   14 - 13 6 - 9 15 - 14 7 - 9 -4.7      -2.7 249 -2.1 238 75.1 32 +0.7 153 0.0 5
297 Portland 0.1%   8 - 20 4 - 11 8 - 21 4 - 12 -7.3      -2.1 233 -5.2 334 70.3 126 -5.7 272 -5.5 8
342 Pacific 0.0%   4 - 24 0 - 15 4 - 25 0 - 16 -12.7      -5.9 318 -6.8 352 70.0 139 -13.5 345 -19.1 9






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Gonzaga 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
San Francisco 3.0 100.0
Santa Clara 4.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 5.9 10.0 90.0
Pepperdine 6.7 32.7 67.3
San Diego 5.0 100.0
Portland 7.3 32.7 67.3
Pacific 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 13 - 3 55.3 44.7
St. Mary's 16 - 0 44.7 55.3
San Francisco 12 - 4 45.8 54.2
Santa Clara 9 - 7 54.2 45.8
Loyola Marymount 6 - 10 32.7 67.3
Pepperdine 5 - 11 100.0
San Diego 7 - 9 14.9 85.1
Portland 4 - 12 67.3 32.7
Pacific 0 - 16 85.1 14.9




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
San Francisco
Santa Clara
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
San Diego
Portland
Pacific


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 88.1% 48.3% 39.8% 6   0.0 0.3 3.8 14.7 19.7 13.7 10.2 9.6 11.8 4.5 0.0 11.9 76.9%
St. Mary's 86.6% 34.8% 51.8% 5   0.0 0.0 0.8 8.9 26.7 25.4 14.5 6.5 2.7 1.0 0.1 13.4 79.4%
San Francisco 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 6.5 1.4 0.0 89.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.4 2.4 1.0 0.1 96.2 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
San Diego 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 88.1% 4.4% 86.5% 60.0% 26.2% 11.9% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8%
St. Mary's 86.6% 0.1% 86.5% 59.9% 25.2% 9.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3%
San Francisco 11.0% 0.0% 11.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 18.3 71.9 9.9
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 19.6 71.4 9.0
2nd Round 86.4% 1.2 13.6 50.0 35.4 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 46.0% 0.5 54.0 39.6 6.3 0.0
Elite Eight 20.2% 0.2 79.8 19.2 0.9
Final Four 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.1 0.1
Final Game 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1