Portland
West Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#171
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace72.0#106
Improvement+0.6#136

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#114
First Shot+4.3#71
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#292
Layup/Dunks+0.3#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#238
Freethrows+4.1#29
Improvement+2.2#33

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#245
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#274
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#353
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement-1.6#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.1
.500 or above 25.5% 32.1% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 29.4% 33.0% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 9.9% 16.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 45 - 211 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 139   Long Beach St. W 78-73 54%     1 - 0 +3.7 -4.4 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2023 195   UC Riverside W 76-65 66%     2 - 0 +6.5 +1.5 +5.0
  Nov 15, 2023 242   Tennessee St. L 65-75 74%     2 - 1 -16.9 -12.8 -4.1
  Nov 18, 2023 43   @ Nevada L 83-108 10%     2 - 2 -11.3 +11.7 -21.4
  Nov 28, 2023 161   @ Portland St. L 74-75 37%     2 - 3 +2.1 +4.5 -2.4
  Dec 01, 2023 163   Wyoming W 81-70 60%     3 - 3 +8.1 +4.3 +3.3
  Dec 03, 2023 203   Air Force W 69-64 66%    
  Dec 07, 2023 223   @ North Dakota St. L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 09, 2023 266   @ North Dakota W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 16, 2023 83   Grand Canyon L 73-80 27%    
  Dec 21, 2023 118   @ Hawaii L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 06, 2024 311   Pacific W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 11, 2024 59   @ St. Mary's L 62-74 14%    
  Jan 13, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 18, 2024 215   San Diego W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 135   @ Santa Clara L 77-82 31%    
  Jan 25, 2024 125   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 27, 2024 69   San Francisco L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 01, 2024 311   @ Pacific W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 182   @ Pepperdine L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 07, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 71-90 5%    
  Feb 10, 2024 59   St. Mary's L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 15, 2024 215   @ San Diego L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 182   @ Pepperdine L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 22, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 74-87 12%    
  Feb 29, 2024 135   Santa Clara W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 125   Loyola Marymount W 76-75 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.1 1.1 0.2 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 7.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.4 3.5 8.3 5.4 1.0 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.6 8.6 4.5 0.7 0.0 19.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.9 6.3 2.7 0.3 15.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.5 9th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.8 8.0 11.9 15.0 15.6 14.9 12.2 8.0 5.1 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 65.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-3 28.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 22.2% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 30.9% 21.8% 9.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6%
13-3 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 1.2% 5.3% 5.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-5 2.4% 7.7% 7.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
10-6 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.9
9-7 8.0% 3.1% 3.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.8
8-8 12.2% 2.0% 2.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
7-9 14.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 14.6
6-10 15.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.5
5-11 15.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.9
4-12 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-13 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-14 3.8% 3.8
1-15 1.3% 1.3
0-16 0.2% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%