Gonzaga
West Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#10
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#9
Pace74.2#59
Improvement+0.5#149

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#7
First Shot+4.7#63
After Offensive Rebound+5.5#7
Layup/Dunks+11.9#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#310
Freethrows+0.2#158
Improvement+0.9#102

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#29
First Shot+9.8#4
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#352
Layups/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#40
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement-0.5#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 10.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 21.3% 21.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 44.3% 44.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 61.7% 61.7% 13.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 93.9% 52.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.9% 83.0% 5.6%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Conference Champion 82.3% 82.3% 97.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
First Round92.9% 92.9% 52.8%
Second Round72.6% 72.7% 36.1%
Sweet Sixteen43.0% 43.0% 2.8%
Elite Eight23.4% 23.4% 2.8%
Final Four12.7% 12.7% 0.0%
Championship Game6.4% 6.4% 0.0%
National Champion3.3% 3.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 25 - 18 - 4
Quad 37 - 116 - 5
Quad 49 - 024 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 91   Yale W 86-71 89%     1 - 0 +17.5 +14.0 +3.5
  Nov 20, 2023 1   Purdue L 63-73 35%     1 - 1 +10.0 -2.9 +13.4
  Nov 21, 2023 87   Syracuse W 76-57 83%     2 - 1 +25.0 +4.7 +19.9
  Nov 22, 2023 41   UCLA W 69-65 68%     3 - 1 +15.2 +8.5 +7.0
  Nov 28, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-65 98%     4 - 1 +6.5 +7.6 -0.5
  Dec 02, 2023 32   USC W 89-76 66%     5 - 1 +25.0 +22.0 +3.1
  Dec 05, 2023 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 101-68 99.9%   
  Dec 09, 2023 57   @ Washington W 83-79 66%    
  Dec 11, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 92-53 99.9%   
  Dec 15, 2023 4   Connecticut L 76-78 41%    
  Dec 20, 2023 262   Jackson St. W 91-66 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 28   San Diego St. W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 04, 2024 182   Pepperdine W 90-70 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 215   San Diego W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 11, 2024 135   @ Santa Clara W 86-75 85%    
  Jan 18, 2024 182   @ Pepperdine W 87-73 90%    
  Jan 20, 2024 215   @ San Diego W 85-70 92%    
  Jan 25, 2024 69   San Francisco W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 27, 2024 311   @ Pacific W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 30, 2024 125   Loyola Marymount W 85-68 93%    
  Feb 03, 2024 59   St. Mary's W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 07, 2024 171   Portland W 90-71 95%    
  Feb 10, 2024 18   @ Kentucky L 82-83 44%    
  Feb 15, 2024 125   @ Loyola Marymount W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 17, 2024 311   Pacific W 91-64 99%    
  Feb 22, 2024 171   @ Portland W 87-74 88%    
  Feb 24, 2024 135   Santa Clara W 89-72 93%    
  Feb 29, 2024 69   @ San Francisco W 77-72 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 59   @ St. Mary's W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.9 11.0 21.9 26.8 19.3 82.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 5.1 1.8 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.5 7.8 16.2 23.7 26.8 19.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 19.3    19.3
15-1 100.0% 26.8    25.9 1.0
14-2 92.3% 21.9    18.1 3.8 0.0
13-3 68.1% 11.0    6.7 3.9 0.4
12-4 36.7% 2.9    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0
11-5 9.5% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 82.3% 82.3 71.0 10.2 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 19.3% 100.0% 78.6% 21.4% 2.2 7.3 5.9 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 26.8% 99.1% 70.0% 29.1% 3.7 2.6 4.9 6.0 5.7 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
14-2 23.7% 97.0% 62.6% 34.4% 6.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.7 4.0 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.7 91.9%
13-3 16.2% 91.7% 56.4% 35.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.5 1.3 0.1 1.3 81.0%
12-4 7.8% 82.1% 48.5% 33.6% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1 1.4 65.3%
11-5 3.5% 69.8% 43.2% 26.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 1.1 46.8%
10-6 1.7% 55.7% 36.6% 19.1% 10.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 30.1%
9-7 0.6% 45.0% 29.5% 15.5% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 22.0%
8-8 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 93.9% 64.0% 29.8% 5.3 10.0 11.3 11.2 11.8 8.8 8.6 7.1 6.6 6.1 7.1 4.7 0.5 0.0 6.1 82.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 1.4 65.6 30.1 3.6 0.7