San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#72
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#106
Pace69.6#172
Improvement+2.0#36

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#103
First Shot+3.3#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#236
Layup/Dunks+5.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#233
Freethrows-1.3#255
Improvement+1.3#49

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#45
First Shot+3.1#90
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#52
Layups/Dunks+4.2#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement+0.7#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 19.7% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.4% 7.2% 2.2%
Average Seed 11.0 10.6 11.6
.500 or above 97.5% 99.2% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 92.9% 87.5%
Conference Champion 12.4% 15.3% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.0% 2.9% 1.2%
First Round14.7% 18.4% 11.7%
Second Round5.1% 7.1% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 359   St. Francis (PA) W 84-52 98%     1 - 0 +13.9 +3.9 +10.6
  Nov 12, 2023 79   @ Boise St. L 58-63 42%     1 - 1 +4.6 -6.2 +10.6
  Nov 17, 2023 78   Grand Canyon L 72-76 53%     1 - 2 +2.7 -1.0 +3.8
  Nov 19, 2023 182   DePaul W 70-54 79%     2 - 2 +14.9 +1.9 +14.1
  Nov 22, 2023 207   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-60 88%     3 - 2 +10.8 +0.6 +10.2
  Nov 26, 2023 128   Minnesota W 76-58 68%     4 - 2 +20.7 +12.1 +10.3
  Dec 03, 2023 86   @ Arizona St. L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 06, 2023 154   @ Vanderbilt W 73-69 65%    
  Dec 11, 2023 287   New Orleans W 83-66 94%    
  Dec 13, 2023 132   Seattle W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 16, 2023 56   Utah St. L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 20, 2023 248   Northern Arizona W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 22, 2023 166   Fresno St. W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 30, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 81-51 99.7%   
  Jan 04, 2024 279   @ Pacific W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 11, 2024 197   @ San Diego W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 13, 2024 187   Portland W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 18, 2024 127   Loyola Marymount W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 20, 2024 61   St. Mary's W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 25, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 27, 2024 187   @ Portland W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 01, 2024 197   San Diego W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 03, 2024 279   Pacific W 80-63 93%    
  Feb 08, 2024 185   @ Pepperdine W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 125   Santa Clara W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 17, 2024 127   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 20, 2024 61   @ St. Mary's L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 24, 2024 185   Pepperdine W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 29, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 72-77 32%    
  Mar 02, 2024 125   @ Santa Clara W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 4.4 2.0 0.4 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 8.0 10.7 7.1 1.7 30.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 9.9 8.2 3.0 0.2 27.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.6 3.2 0.5 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.4 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.5 8.9 13.3 16.0 16.9 15.3 11.0 6.1 2.0 0.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.0    1.8 0.3
14-2 72.3% 4.4    2.5 1.8 0.1
13-3 33.4% 3.7    1.3 2.0 0.4
12-4 10.2% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
11-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 6.4 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 93.4% 42.1% 51.4% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.7%
15-1 2.0% 75.4% 34.4% 41.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 62.6%
14-2 6.1% 47.8% 23.3% 24.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 31.9%
13-3 11.0% 27.0% 18.5% 8.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.0 10.4%
12-4 15.3% 15.9% 13.7% 2.2% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.9 2.6%
11-5 16.9% 13.1% 12.7% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 14.7 0.4%
10-6 16.0% 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 12.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 14.5 0.2%
9-7 13.3% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.3 0.0%
8-8 8.9% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
7-9 5.5% 3.8% 3.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3
6-10 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-11 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.6% 11.7% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.6 4.7 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 84.4 4.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 22.1 26.5 25.0 13.2 5.9 4.4 2.9