San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#215
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#138
Pace72.5#91
Improvement-2.3#316

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#223
First Shot+0.9#156
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#305
Layup/Dunks+2.1#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows+1.3#107
Improvement-1.5#299

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot+1.9#116
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#328
Layups/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-0.8#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 33.2% 45.4% 23.4%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 21.6% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 15.8% 21.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 49 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 262   Jackson St. W 87-61 72%     1 - 0 +17.6 +6.4 +10.2
  Nov 11, 2023 236   @ UC San Diego L 72-74 44%    
  Nov 17, 2023 360   Le Moyne W 80-71 92%     2 - 0 -9.1 -4.3 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2023 298   Navy W 67-59 78%     3 - 0 -2.5 -5.1 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2023 240   Arkansas St. W 71-57 56%     4 - 0 +10.1 -7.8 +17.1
  Nov 25, 2023 118   Hawaii L 66-77 30%     4 - 1 -8.0 -4.8 -2.9
  Nov 29, 2023 270   Northern Colorado W 74-72 74%     5 - 1 -6.9 -6.3 -0.7
  Dec 03, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 06, 2023 56   @ Utah St. L 66-80 9%    
  Dec 09, 2023 81   Arizona St. L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 15, 2023 161   Portland St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 21, 2023 289   South Dakota W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 29, 2023 187   Fresno St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 04, 2024 59   St. Mary's L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 06, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 67-88 3%    
  Jan 11, 2024 69   San Francisco L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 13, 2024 182   Pepperdine W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 18, 2024 171   @ Portland L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 20, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 70-85 8%    
  Jan 27, 2024 182   @ Pepperdine L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 01, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 65-78 13%    
  Feb 03, 2024 135   @ Santa Clara L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 07, 2024 125   Loyola Marymount L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 10, 2024 311   @ Pacific W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 171   Portland W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 17, 2024 135   Santa Clara L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 24, 2024 59   @ St. Mary's L 59-73 12%    
  Feb 29, 2024 125   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-77 25%    
  Mar 02, 2024 311   Pacific W 78-69 79%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 3.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 8.6 4.3 0.7 0.0 17.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.5 9.2 4.7 0.6 20.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 7.9 8.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 23.6 8th
9th 0.6 2.5 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.9 9th
Total 0.6 2.7 6.5 11.8 15.3 17.0 15.8 12.2 8.5 5.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 28.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 16.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.2% 7.4% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.0 0.0 1.3
10-6 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-7 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-8 8.5% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-9 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1
6-10 15.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.6
5-11 17.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.0
4-12 15.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.2
3-13 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.7
2-14 6.5% 6.5
1-15 2.7% 2.7
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%