Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.3% 11.3% 3.7%
#1 Seed 34.8% 34.8% 7.5%
Top 2 Seed 55.1% 55.2% 16.4%
Top 4 Seed 74.7% 74.8% 36.9%
Top 6 Seed 84.9% 85.0% 56.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.9% 94.9% 75.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 93.5% 72.2%
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 4.8
.500 or above 98.1% 98.1% 86.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 93.3% 79.7%
Conference Champion 40.3% 40.4% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 4.5%
First Round94.3% 94.4% 72.6%
Second Round84.4% 84.5% 61.0%
Sweet Sixteen61.5% 61.6% 28.9%
Elite Eight40.9% 41.0% 10.6%
Final Four25.5% 25.6% 3.4%
Championship Game15.7% 15.8% 0.0%
National Champion9.4% 9.4% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 5
Quad 26 - 114 - 6
Quad 33 - 018 - 6
Quad 44 - 022 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 306   NC Central W 87-57 99.8%   
  Nov 10, 2023 325   Manhattan W 88-56 99.8%   
  Nov 14, 2023 13   Kentucky W 75-71 65%    
  Nov 28, 2023 332   Eastern Illinois W 89-56 99.8%   
  Dec 01, 2023 6   Connecticut W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 05, 2023 286   UMKC W 82-53 99%    
  Dec 09, 2023 52   Missouri W 84-71 87%    
  Dec 16, 2023 39   @ Indiana W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 22, 2023 68   Yale W 78-64 89%    
  Dec 30, 2023 95   Wichita St. W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 06, 2024 24   TCU W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 10, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 13, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 77-64 86%    
  Jan 16, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 63   @ West Virginia W 79-71 74%    
  Jan 22, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 27, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 30, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 78-65 86%    
  Feb 03, 2024 4   Houston W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 05, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 14   Baylor W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 12, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 17, 2024 53   @ Oklahoma W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 24, 2024 15   Texas W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 27, 2024 50   BYU W 82-69 85%    
  Mar 02, 2024 14   @ Baylor W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 05, 2024 32   Kansas St. W 81-71 80%    
  Mar 09, 2024 4   @ Houston L 68-69 48%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.0 9.9 11.0 7.9 3.3 40.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 6.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.1 0.9 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 10.9 12.6 13.8 13.6 11.7 7.9 3.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
17-1 99.6% 7.9    7.6 0.3
16-2 93.8% 11.0    9.1 1.9 0.1
15-3 72.9% 9.9    6.5 3.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.1% 6.0    2.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.6% 2.0    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.3% 40.3 29.4 8.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.3% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 1.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.9% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.1 6.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.7% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.3 8.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.6% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 1.5 8.1 4.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.8% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.9 5.1 5.5 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.6% 99.9% 19.0% 81.0% 2.6 2.3 4.0 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 10.9% 99.9% 15.8% 84.1% 3.7 0.5 1.8 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 8.5% 99.2% 12.9% 86.3% 4.9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
10-8 6.5% 96.3% 9.9% 86.5% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.9%
9-9 4.4% 86.7% 8.5% 78.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 85.5%
8-10 3.0% 62.4% 6.1% 56.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 59.9%
7-11 1.7% 28.8% 7.2% 21.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 23.3%
6-12 1.1% 9.5% 3.2% 6.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.5%
5-13 0.5% 5.9% 4.3% 1.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7%
4-14 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 94.9% 22.1% 72.7% 3.0 34.8 20.4 11.7 7.8 5.9 4.3 3.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 93.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6