Preseason Rankings
Kansas St.
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#46
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.7% 6.2% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 14.0% 4.6%
Top 4 Seed 20.8% 30.9% 13.0%
Top 6 Seed 33.4% 46.2% 23.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.2% 73.0% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.6% 70.7% 46.0%
Average Seed 6.0 5.5 6.6
.500 or above 80.3% 90.8% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.7% 67.6% 50.1%
Conference Champion 6.1% 8.7% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.8% 7.9%
First Four4.7% 4.5% 4.8%
First Round56.9% 70.8% 46.2%
Second Round38.7% 50.9% 29.4%
Sweet Sixteen19.5% 27.4% 13.3%
Elite Eight9.3% 13.6% 6.0%
Final Four4.2% 6.4% 2.6%
Championship Game2.0% 3.2% 1.2%
National Champion0.9% 1.4% 0.5%

Next Game: USC (Neutral) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 18   USC L 74-76 44%    
  Nov 10, 2023 215   Bellarmine W 77-60 95%    
  Nov 13, 2023 151   South Dakota St. W 81-67 90%    
  Nov 17, 2023 46   Providence W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 22, 2023 336   Central Arkansas W 94-68 99%    
  Nov 28, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 87-72 90%    
  Dec 02, 2023 223   North Alabama W 85-67 94%    
  Dec 05, 2023 20   Villanova W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 09, 2023 56   @ LSU L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 17, 2023 67   Nebraska W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 21, 2023 95   Wichita St. W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 02, 2024 324   Chicago St. W 84-60 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 81   Central Florida W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 09, 2024 63   @ West Virginia W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 13, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 16, 2024 14   Baylor W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 20, 2024 59   Oklahoma St. W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 24, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 27, 2024 4   @ Houston L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 30, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 03, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 05, 2024 1   Kansas L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 50   @ BYU L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 24   TCU W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 19, 2024 15   @ Texas L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 24, 2024 50   BYU W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 26, 2024 63   West Virginia W 79-73 70%    
  Mar 02, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 05, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 71-81 20%    
  Mar 09, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 69-65 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.5 3.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.3 0.2 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 5.8 7.6 10.1 10.8 11.6 11.0 10.1 8.8 6.8 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.3% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 88.3% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 66.3% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.2% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.4% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.9% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.0 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.6 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.8% 99.9% 12.0% 87.9% 3.6 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 8.8% 99.2% 9.3% 90.0% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 10.1% 96.1% 7.1% 89.1% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.8%
10-8 11.0% 89.8% 5.6% 84.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 89.2%
9-9 11.6% 71.3% 3.9% 67.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 70.1%
8-10 10.8% 40.0% 3.7% 36.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 37.7%
7-11 10.1% 16.0% 2.7% 13.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 13.7%
6-12 7.6% 4.2% 2.3% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 2.0%
5-13 5.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7 0.2%
4-14 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-16 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.2% 6.1% 53.1% 6.0 3.7 5.0 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 4.9 4.6 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 40.8 56.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4