Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#120
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#219
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 22.7% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 3.9% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.3 11.4 12.7
.500 or above 67.7% 85.4% 62.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.5% 79.3% 63.9%
Conference Champion 17.1% 25.1% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 3.7% 8.5%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 1.4%
First Round14.5% 21.9% 12.3%
Second Round3.3% 6.1% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 71   @ Colorado St. L 66-74 23%    
  Nov 16, 2023 287   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-64 73%    
  Nov 21, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 80-71 80%    
  Nov 22, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 76-64 86%    
  Nov 29, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 72-82 20%    
  Dec 02, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 05, 2023 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-74 38%    
  Dec 09, 2023 176   Louisiana W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 12, 2023 268   SE Louisiana W 79-67 84%    
  Dec 16, 2023 102   @ Saint Louis L 71-75 35%    
  Dec 20, 2023 126   @ Seattle L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 30, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 06, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 11, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 14, 2024 84   Liberty L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 20, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 25, 2024 155   UTEP W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 167   New Mexico St. W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 01, 2024 196   @ Florida International W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 07, 2024 172   Western Kentucky W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 62-69 30%    
  Feb 15, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 196   Florida International W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 22, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 24, 2024 167   @ New Mexico St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 28, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 07, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 59%    
  Mar 09, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.1 4.9 3.4 1.8 0.5 17.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.9 4.1 1.3 0.2 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.0 1.4 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.2 1.1 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.0 8.1 10.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 10.5 8.6 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
14-2 95.0% 3.4    2.9 0.5
13-3 78.8% 4.9    3.4 1.4 0.1
12-4 47.8% 4.1    2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 19.0% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 11.1 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 83.1% 58.1% 25.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 59.7%
15-1 1.8% 69.5% 50.9% 18.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 38.0%
14-2 3.6% 54.0% 42.0% 12.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 20.7%
13-3 6.2% 37.9% 33.0% 4.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 7.2%
12-4 8.6% 28.1% 27.2% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.2 1.2%
11-5 10.5% 19.8% 19.5% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.3%
10-6 12.3% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.5 0.0%
9-7 12.1% 10.4% 10.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.8
8-8 12.0% 6.4% 6.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.2
7-9 10.0% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.6
6-10 8.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
5-11 6.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
4-12 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-13 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-14 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-15 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.2% 13.9% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.4 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.0 1.1 84.8 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 28.3 43.3 15.0 13.3