Preseason Rankings
TCU
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.3#50
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 3.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 8.8% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 20.1% 20.2% 4.4%
Top 6 Seed 31.7% 32.0% 11.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.9% 60.2% 29.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.8% 57.2% 27.5%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 89.1% 89.4% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 65.1% 40.6%
Conference Champion 8.3% 8.3% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 4.5% 14.8%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 2.3%
First Round58.0% 58.4% 28.0%
Second Round40.3% 40.5% 15.5%
Sweet Sixteen20.5% 20.7% 7.2%
Elite Eight10.2% 10.3% 3.2%
Final Four4.9% 4.9% 1.4%
Championship Game2.1% 2.2% 0.3%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 33 - 112 - 9
Quad 47 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 321   Southern W 88-63 99%    
  Nov 09, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha W 87-64 98%    
  Nov 14, 2023 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-69 98%    
  Nov 17, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-54 99.9%   
  Nov 21, 2023 281   Alcorn St. W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 27, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 95-64 99.6%   
  Dec 02, 2023 106   @ Georgetown W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 09, 2023 45   Clemson W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 16, 2023 65   Arizona St. W 75-70 65%    
  Dec 21, 2023 180   Old Dominion W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 01, 2024 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-60 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 09, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 13, 2024 4   Houston L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 16, 2024 58   @ Cincinnati W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 20, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 23, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 14   @ Baylor L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 30, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 15   Texas W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 10, 2024 40   @ Iowa St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 12, 2024 63   West Virginia W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 20, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 24, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 26, 2024 14   Baylor W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 02, 2024 50   @ BYU W 76-75 49%    
  Mar 06, 2024 63   @ West Virginia W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 09, 2024 81   Central Florida W 73-64 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.7 7.9 9.8 11.1 11.8 10.7 10.2 8.0 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.4% 0.8    0.8 0.1
16-2 85.4% 1.8    1.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 60.9% 2.4    1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.7% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.9% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.1 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.2% 99.8% 13.9% 86.0% 3.0 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 8.0% 99.8% 11.9% 87.8% 4.3 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.2% 97.5% 9.6% 87.9% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.3%
11-7 10.7% 92.4% 7.0% 85.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8 91.9%
10-8 11.8% 77.3% 5.5% 71.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.7 76.0%
9-9 11.1% 56.3% 5.0% 51.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.9 54.0%
8-10 9.8% 26.8% 3.7% 23.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 24.0%
7-11 7.9% 8.1% 3.0% 5.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 5.3%
6-12 6.7% 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.9%
5-13 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.9% 7.0% 52.8% 6.1 3.9 4.8 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.6 6.2 6.5 5.7 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.1 56.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.5 16.5