Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.3#7
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 4.6% 0.7%
#1 Seed 17.1% 17.2% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 31.5% 31.7% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 52.7% 53.0% 16.1%
Top 6 Seed 67.4% 67.7% 25.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 86.9% 54.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.2% 84.5% 51.7%
Average Seed 4.2 4.2 6.5
.500 or above 94.6% 94.8% 68.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 86.8% 60.8%
Conference Champion 25.8% 25.9% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 2.8%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 4.3%
First Round85.4% 85.7% 51.8%
Second Round69.6% 69.9% 30.2%
Sweet Sixteen44.5% 44.7% 15.8%
Elite Eight25.7% 25.9% 8.4%
Final Four14.4% 14.5% 5.3%
Championship Game7.7% 7.7% 1.9%
National Champion4.1% 4.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 6
Quad 25 - 112 - 7
Quad 34 - 016 - 8
Quad 45 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 289   Tennessee Tech W 79-53 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 28   @ Wisconsin W 61-60 53%    
  Nov 14, 2023 242   Wofford W 77-54 98%    
  Nov 20, 2023 75   Syracuse W 72-63 80%    
  Nov 29, 2023 16   @ North Carolina L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 05, 2023 139   George Mason W 73-56 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 21   Illinois W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 12, 2023 229   Georgia Southern W 76-53 97%    
  Dec 16, 2023 61   North Carolina St. W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 21, 2023 214   Tarleton St. W 75-53 97%    
  Jan 02, 2024 248   Norfolk St. W 77-53 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 60   Mississippi W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 10, 2024 37   @ Mississippi St. W 61-59 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 16, 2024 36   Florida W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 20, 2024 12   Alabama W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 30, 2024 89   South Carolina W 70-56 87%    
  Feb 03, 2024 13   @ Kentucky L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 07, 2024 56   LSU W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 10, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 14, 2024 17   @ Arkansas L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 17, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 73-60 87%    
  Feb 20, 2024 52   @ Missouri W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 22   Texas A&M W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 28, 2024 23   Auburn W 70-64 70%    
  Mar 02, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 06, 2024 89   @ South Carolina W 67-59 73%    
  Mar 09, 2024 13   Kentucky W 68-64 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 7.5 6.5 3.8 1.3 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.4 1.2 0.1 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.8 0.9 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.4 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.2 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.5 9.3 11.3 12.3 12.5 11.5 10.2 6.9 3.8 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.4% 3.8    3.7 0.1
16-2 93.6% 6.5    5.3 1.1 0.0
15-3 73.8% 7.5    4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.3% 4.9    1.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 17.1 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.8% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.9% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.4 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.2% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 1.8 4.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.5% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.4 2.4 4.3 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 99.9% 16.5% 83.4% 3.4 0.9 2.5 3.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 12.3% 99.5% 13.0% 86.5% 4.5 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 11.3% 97.2% 10.4% 86.7% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
10-8 9.3% 90.8% 8.3% 82.5% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 90.0%
9-9 7.5% 75.5% 6.8% 68.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 73.8%
8-10 5.2% 44.9% 5.8% 39.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 41.5%
7-11 3.6% 18.9% 4.9% 14.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.8%
6-12 2.3% 6.2% 3.2% 3.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 3.1%
5-13 1.2% 3.4% 3.1% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.3%
4-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.7% 15.6% 71.1% 4.2 17.1 14.4 11.6 9.7 8.1 6.6 5.8 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3 84.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6