Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#262
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.6#38
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#311
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 22.2% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 53.9% 75.4% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 72.4% 83.5% 69.3%
Conference Champion 17.8% 27.5% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.4% 4.2%
First Four4.1% 4.3% 4.1%
First Round11.8% 19.9% 9.5%
Second Round0.5% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 412 - 713 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2023 174   @ Portland L 77-85 22%    
  Nov 17, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 65-85 3%    
  Nov 24, 2023 237   Mercer L 71-73 45%    
  Nov 29, 2023 338   @ Alabama A&M W 76-74 59%    
  Dec 02, 2023 236   Austin Peay W 74-73 56%    
  Dec 10, 2023 184   @ Lipscomb L 76-84 25%    
  Dec 13, 2023 84   @ Liberty L 64-79 10%    
  Dec 19, 2023 122   @ Indiana St. L 75-86 17%    
  Dec 28, 2023 282   Tennessee Martin W 85-81 64%    
  Dec 30, 2023 275   Arkansas Little Rock W 85-81 63%    
  Jan 04, 2024 344   @ Southern Indiana W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 06, 2024 220   @ Morehead St. L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 13, 2024 356   Lindenwood W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 18, 2024 289   Tennessee Tech W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 20, 2024 317   @ Western Illinois W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 01, 2024 220   Morehead St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 344   Southern Indiana W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 08, 2024 356   @ Lindenwood W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 10, 2024 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 82-83 49%    
  Feb 13, 2024 289   @ Tennessee Tech L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 17, 2024 317   Western Illinois W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 22, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 24, 2024 259   SIU Edwardsville W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 29, 2024 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 82-84 42%    
  Mar 02, 2024 282   @ Tennessee Martin L 82-84 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.1 4.7 3.7 1.8 0.5 17.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.5 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.4 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.1 5.2 6.8 8.7 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.0 9.5 7.8 5.9 3.9 1.8 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.8% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 95.7% 3.7    3.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 79.6% 4.7    3.5 1.2 0.1
14-4 52.6% 4.1    2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 24.0% 2.3    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.8 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 75.3% 73.7% 1.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.4%
17-1 1.8% 65.7% 65.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.9% 51.6% 51.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 1.9
15-3 5.9% 39.3% 39.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 3.6
14-4 7.8% 28.1% 28.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 5.6
13-5 9.5% 20.1% 20.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 7.6
12-6 11.0% 14.2% 14.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 9.4
11-7 11.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 10.3
10-8 10.8% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 10.1
9-9 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.6
8-10 8.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.5
7-11 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.7
6-12 5.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.1
5-13 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.8 7.1 86.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%